Written by Gerasimos Tavropos
2015 was a year of intense, dense and sometimes “dramatic” developments â€“ speaking particularly for the domestic political scene… All the omens, however, predispose that and 2016 will not be behind in terms of intensity, density and the “dramatic” developments. And already the first political storm has been announced for the period from the end of January until early March. The “pressure low” formed regarding the major issue of the Insurance, where “playable” so the fortunes of the government and the direction of political developments.
From what is said these days, most are just surface â€“ communicative importance. However, there are some (from the ones that usually pass unnoticed…) which tell you the whole truth. And the declaration of days, which says at least half the truth comes from the lips of the most responsible minister of the government, mr George ÎšÎ±Ï„ÏÎ¿ÏÎ³ÎºÎ±Î»Î¿Ï… that
“the discrepancies in the proposed rates of pensionable earnings is significant between the Greek side and their institutions”. In fact, the government plan provides for a replacement rate of 62% (from 65% currently), while according to our own information, the “quartet” of the lenders asks for no less than the replacement rate of 48%!!!
If this is half true, the other half is that the lenders reject the measures to increase the contributions, considering that it is anti-development and that will exacerbate fundamental parameters (growth rates, unemployment, collectability of contributions). In particular the IMF, which in spite of the wishes of the government remains steadfast in the Greek program, not only reject emphatically such measures, but is asking for greater liberalisation in the labour market (collective redundancies, a further reduction of the lower salary etc.).
So, if lenders insist on their demands or make only minor concessions from these, the differences with the government’s chaotic and possibly non-manageable. However, the requirements of the lenders are not exhausted in them, also raise issue of a supplementary budget for 2016 due to delay in the achievement of the objectives of the programme for 2015, which means an additional “package” of measures!
From this point unfolds the “tangle” of political developments: The government is simply not withstand such requirements, i.e. it can be passed by the House on the basis of its own members. The information say that 9 members of the government majority refused to vote for measures that require lenders. This is the reason why Alexis Tsipras opened so early enlargement issue of the government’s majority and so myself personally as well as top government officials began the political “flirting” with Vassilis Leventis.
The looming government instability -not only that, but this – is also behind the degenerative phenomena in the “battle of succession” of the SOUTHWEST. In the case of government’s inability to pass measures that would require the lenders by the House of commons, the SW will be found pre great political dilemma: will vote in favour of the measures or refuses leading to overall political instability”?
The obvious dilemmas, so Vasilis Leventis as well as the future leadership of the SOUTHWEST, have been answered in advance: The Vassilis Leventis stated categorically that is not offered for policy reserve of the government and insists that the only solution is the “universal” of”, and the candidates for the leadership of the SOUTHWEST (Vangelis Meimarakis and Kyriakos Mitsotakis) go even further, stating that the SW will not participate in “ecumenical” government. On the other hand, the government appears optimistic that the government’s majority of 153 members will not only withstand but also can be enlarged with members from the Union Of the or and the River…
None of this should not be taken for granted. A good dose of dramatization in front of a new deadlock between the government â€“ lenders, can mobilize the feelings of national responsibility,” political parties, leaders and mps to find a solution majority government.
The truth is that we are heading headlong into a new “political hub”, with all the scenarios â€“ even the most imaginative â€“ open.
Written by Gerasimos Tavropos