IOC: ‘Camp’ for greater than expected oil demand – increase in Brent price

Global demand is projected to rise by 1.7 mb/d more than expected in the 1st quarter of 2024, due to improved prospects for the US and fuel, according to the International Energy Agency (ILO) report, at the same time as international prices of Brent are rising. While the oil increase of 2024 has been revised by 110 (kb/d) thousands of barrels since last month’s Report, the expansion rate is well on track to slow down from 2.3 million barrels (mb/d) in 2023 to 1.3 million barrels (mb/d), as the increase in oil demand returns to its historical trend, while the increase in efficiency and electric cars reduce the use. Global oil production is expected to decrease by 870 thousand barrels (kb/d) in the 1st quarter of 24 compared to the fourth quarter of 2023, due to the strong holidays related to weather conditions and new restrictions from the OPEC+ block. As of the second quarter, countries outside OPEC+ they are expected to dominate profits, since some OPEC+ members announced that they would extend additional voluntary cuts to support market stability. The global supply for 2024 is projected to increase by 800 thousand barrels (kb/d) to 102.9 million barrels (mb/d), including downward adjustment of OPEC+ production. Slow refinery crossings are projected to increase from the low level of February (81.4 mb/d) to a summer maximum (85.6 mb/d) in August. For the year as a whole, the passing quantities are expected to increase by 1.2 mb/d to 83.5 mb/d on average, driven by the Middle East, Africa and Asia. Refining margins improved by mid-February before retreating, with US Midcontinent and Gulf Coast as well as Europe leading profits. Global oil reserves observed increased by 47.1 mb in February. Coastal reserves dominated profits, as sea exports reached historically high levels and maritime disruptions through the Red Sea bound significant quantities of oil to water, while land reserves declined. Global reserves fell by 48.1 mb in January, with OECD industry reserves at a low of 16 months. Future fulfilment contracts CE Brent increased by $2/varelli during February, as the continued Huthi maritime attacks on the Red Sea kept the offer steady under the prices of the argon. With oil tankers taking the longest route around Africa, more oil remained in the water, further tightening the Atlantic basin market and sending the structure of the slow’s future prices deeper into backwarding. At the time this report was published, Brent was negotiating at 83 dollars/varelli.