Unsettled analysts are watching in the “Next Day” of the strike in Moscow, especially in relation to the attitude the Russian leadership will take towards not only the , but overall in the West. The first estimates in Germany seem to come to the conclusion that this blow will accelerate developments, which, however, had started before that, and these are not other than the attempt to rebuild both European defence (as shown by its summit) on the one hand and Russia on the other, with a peak of not only Ukraine, but NATO as a whole. According to military analysts, Russia is preparing for a major military confrontation with NATO. “Not directly, but probably in a shorter time than some Western experts initially assumed”, according to a new study by the American Institute for War Study (ISW). Financial, economic and military indicators show this, notes Handelsblatt. Russian Defence Minister Sergei Soigu announced last week – shortly after President Vladimir Putin was re-elected and before the blow in Moscow (22.03). 24) – that ground forces will increase by two “armies” with 16 new brigades and 14 additional divisions. The minister didn’t give exact numbers. However, according to an expert on the Russian military mechanism, this would mean that the number of soldiers would rise by almost half from the current 1.1 million active soldiers to 1.5 million. During this year, Russia invests almost 1/3 of its total budget, or more than 6% of its GDP, in the military. Under Putin, the budget has grown to about $110 billion. This is a significant amount, but Russia must also use it to pay its soldiers’ salaries and to obtain new equipment. With the high percentages of casualties in Ukraine’s war, Moscow has difficulty achieving this. The president has therefore turned production into a war economy and has significantly increased production potential. As defence minister Soigu announced, during a visit to an arms plant, Russia increased the production of artillery munitions nearly two and a half times in the last year. This declaration cannot be verified. Russia is now reportedly producing nearly three times as much artillery ammunition as Europe and the US together, the US television network CNN recently reported, citing Western intelligence circles. Nevertheless, production is not enough and Russia depends on the supplies of ammunition from North Korea and Iran. Berlin: Russia will be strong enough for an attack in five to eight years The German government considered to date that the Russian army could be strong enough to attack a NATO country in five to eight years. This is one of the reasons why federal Defence Minister Boris Pistorius (SPD) spoke of the need for the German federal army (Bundeswehr) to quickly become “ready for war”. Other countries such as France, Poland and the Baltic States also equip their armed forces. Until when the European NATO countries should be ready to defend themselves depends on the course of the war in Ukraine, as a Bundeswehr general recently explained. Russia is currently unable to compensate for the number of fallen soldiers and material losses. For example, western experts estimate that the Moscow army has so far lost about 3,000 tanks. “The industry was able to build a maximum of 1,000 new tanks in this time”, said a military expert. More cannot be done in the visible future. Russia’s resources may be limited, but the will is recognizable, as shown by Shoigu’s equipment plans. Polish President Andrzej Duda recently warned during his visit to Washington that an attack on NATO could be imminent as early as 2026 or 2027, while referring to unspecified sources of research from Germany. Germany’s Federal Defence Minister, Pistorius has not yet seen any change in the level of threats. “The same procedure as every week”, he said last Friday (24.03. 24) when asked if he was concerned about the increase in Russian troops announced by Soigu. Every week new warnings come from Moscow that a nuclear strike is imminent or that defence spending is increasing massively. “This is part of Russia’s propaganda machine, I take note of it,” said Pistorius after meeting with his French counterpart Sébastien Lecornu in Berlin on Friday. Experts doubt Russia really wants to be equipped In fact, it is not certain what must be done with Moscow’s announcements. ISW experts point out that Shoigu had already announced the creation of new divisions and brigades last year and that it is unclear how many are actually going to be added now. To date, the government has not yet announced a decree detailing plans to increase staff. Without it, the Minister’s words will have no effect. Analyst Dara Massicot from Carnegie Endowment for International Peace pointed out on the Platform X that Shoigu has already repeatedly announced massive increases in the army in peacetime, without this being followed by corresponding actions. Massicot wrote that the announcement should be taken into account, but should not be weighed on the scales. ISW experts are also not tired of stressing that Russia currently lacks staff, infrastructure or training skills to create additional troops on a large scale. It is also doubtful where the soldiers will come from. Russia’s army is already experiencing difficulties in recruiting. Missionaries from Moscow are now traveling to various countries in South America, Africa, and Asia to recruit soldiers for the war in Ukraine. However, it is clear that the Russian leadership now identifies the war in Ukraine as such. Previously, there was always only talk about “special military operation”. But “when the collective West took part in the side of Ukraine, there was war for us”, said Kremlin representative Dmitry Peskov on Friday 22 March.
How Russia will pay the cost of possible escalation of the war in Ukraine after the shooting in Moscow
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