Mr. Stournaras said, “confirmed” it and Bloomberg, the shareholders of Greek banks, expect for the first time since 2008 “divisions”. In short, those “locals” and “foreigners” have had the patience to wait despite losses in the share capital of Greek banks will begin to “reward”! They were all very happy, despite the fact that SSM has not yet given the “okay”, which is expected some time before Easter. Something like an Easter dungeon. But somewhere here one needs to think about the invisible dimensions of this great change and what that means to banks and shareholders. But before we go into it we need to take a look at the “environment” in which this will happen. According to Mr Stournara and what he said without reservations in an important recent interview, which one can find on the TTE website, the European economy has already entered a phase of stagnation. What does that mean? It means economic slowdown at stagnation level in conditions where prices are not deflated but instead maintain their inflationary trends. And that explains it – not even a magician – on the basis of the geopolitical instability that prevails. And indeed a few days later, the events in Moscow “turned” the deflation trend in gas prices upside down, while supporting the rising trends of oil. In other words, in time dt the main factors for maintaining inflation trends in energy products on which inflation in the Eurozone depends. At the same time as has been announced, sooner or later the ECB will reduce interest rates, which, according to Mr Stournara, will be reduced four times this year. Or to translate it, at the end of the year the ECB’s interest rate will be 3%, from 4% it is today. What does that mean? One could say that it means relaxing monetary pressure. However, it does not mean much relaxation on the issue of liquidity because in the same period, according to Mr Stournara, the ECB will withdraw (in 2024) around EUR 800 billion (!) from the market. If we look at these events in the Greek reality, we will easily find that our economy is projected to have positive growth rates (1.5% – 1.8%), it will still face twice the cost of money (3%), in an environment that reduces the available liquidity of the market. Stabilization, therefore, in which the loan cost is twice the rate of growth, i.e. shrinking in real terms even in terms of full operation of the Recovery Fund. This is far from “big business” for banks. It is within this environment that SSM predicts an increasing trend of ‘red loans’. But in order to have banks on the market they need to have shareholders who want to stay in them. And not be in a situation that waits for a chance to jump out the door. In other words shareholders waiting for “reward”. So this is how the process of rapid withdrawal of the TCS and the sales of packages on the market began: with the promise that shareholders will finally begin if they get “divisions” now that we have cleaned up from the npls with the help of “Herakles” and state guarantees! Both locals and foreigners who had long been “traped” and waited patiently for the “comfort” from the promises of politicians… And she came. And the weather is pressing, because under normal circumstances there should be no discussion of dividends, since the case of notorious capitalization with ‘delayed taxes’ is pending. One of the many findings of the memorandum restructuring and recapitalisation of the domestic system, for which the EU is grateful. After that he acquired – i.e. legalized – techniques he did not have before. But the point is that this pressure finds reaction – and rightly so – from SSM who under his new leadership does not see these … violences with a good eye. A lot of discussion has been held “unofficially” between the TE, actors of the Ministry of Finance and SSM and eventually there was some sort of agreement. In fact, Mr. Stournaras also announced it publicly saying that there are the proposals of banks that want to share 30% of profits, but given the “conditions” and… half of them are good. Information in the column says that this “and half good are” (the phrase is a TTE executive) is currently “discussed”, but it will not be the same for all banks, namely systemic ones. That is because all four owe – but to a different extent – their profits basically from the money they make from the difference in interest rates with which they deposit their clients’ deposits with the ECB, while still having obligations with deferred taxes. And once interest rates are reduced by the ECB, these ‘wins’ cannot be calculated in the medium term… In other words, dividends will be given but in moderation, very… measure. You’ll think it makes sense to do that. But the problem is whether this “measure” given the circumstances “will be judged by shareholders as a satisfactory and convincing argument to stay” for … subsequent dividends. This bet is open, it’s not closed yet. And it is sufficiently “dangerous” for the banking system given the uncertainty that dominates internationally. And there still doesn’t seem to be a unanimous opinion from those who make the final decision… We’re looking.
The big “open” bet with banking dividends, the Stournara oracle and the worried shareholders
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