National Bank: Growth 4% can be achieved by the business sector in 2024 – The “new economy” industry stands out

The business sector has the potential to achieve rates of 4% (in deflated terms) in 2024, estimates. The Directorate for Economic Analysis of the National Bank, the main proponents of this development, will be the gradually stronger European demand as well as the further exploitation of European resources mainly for infrastructure and digital upgrading projects. In this context, encouraging are the first indications for the new year with the January performance for large enterprises (+3.6%) to confirm the recovery trend at levels higher than the weak 2nd half of 2023. However, it should not be overlooked that 2024 remains a year of challenges. The international environment continues to be characterised by extremely high uncertainty, with geopolitical pressures constantly creating outbreaks of economic crest (such as the reduction of crossings from Suez by 40% during the first quarter of the year). At the same time, businesses are invited to manage climate-related phenomena by affecting the economy at local and national level. Looking at a medium-term horizon and beyond convex shocks, the element that stands out in Greek business and is estimated to leave the deepest footprint in the coming years is the continuous rise of the branches of the “new economy” (covering sectors from IT to the high-tech industry and R&D). Already, its share of business sector sales has risen to 10.9% in 2023 from 7.6% in 2019. It is noted that in 2023 it achieved a threefold growth rate from the other business sector (11.2% versus 2.8%). Continuing on the trend towards growth in recent years, the share of the “new economy” has the guarantees to reach 20% by 2030. With indirect positive effects spreading across all sectors, the formation of this new model business economy in Greece is the ultimate bet. As the EIB notes, in 2023, it closed with an increase of 3.6% (in deflated terms) for business sales, while Greek companies exceeded the performance of their European competitors in terms of value added production, thus strengthening their share of European business (in 1.12% during the 4th quarter 2023, from 1.09% in 2022).