Huge disasters in the refineries – Gas pipelines threatened by Russia and Ukraine on either side

Production of products totalling 3.7 million barrels per day is threatened by the drones sent by Ukraine. Already so far the oil production of Russia’s refineries has been reduced by 600,000 barrels/day as a result of continuous attacks. International analysts estimate that capacity of up to 1 million barrels has already been damaged and will remain out of service for a short or long time. The range of Ukrainian drones is around 1,000 km within Russian territory, which puts tens of facilities at stake with what it implies for Russia’s smooth supply of fuel and other oil products. Russia has not found the way to defend itself against these attacks so far, as it is much harder to cover with countermeasures such large areas as the front in Ukraine, where the scale is much smaller. In an indirect way the situation in Russia also affects the international fuel market, while the country has reduced exports and increased imports to cope. Warns NATO of possible attacks on western infrastructure Earlier this month, NATO issued a communication recommending its members to take steps against possible new terrorist attacks or cyberattacks against energy infrastructure, such as gas pipelines, terminals or electrical connections. After all, we already have the precedent of the attacks on the Nord Stream and BalticConnector pipeline in the North Sea, for which the guilty have never been demonstrated by the investigations carried out by the authorities. A new potential target for the future for Russia is the gas depots and pipelines of Ukraine. To date Moscow has avoided targeting them, as it has a gas transit contract to Europe through Ukrainian territory. By the end of 2024 this contract expires, so Russia will no longer have an economic incentive to keep these facilities intact. During the war Ukraine’s electricity grid has been severely affected and it is not excluded that next year it will expand its attacks on gas. All of these constitute a particularly dangerous environment for energy infrastructure in Europe. Deficient protection against cyberattacks Experienced executive of the cybersecurity area said that these facilities are largely vulnerable. They are controlled and protected by a mixture consisting of earlier analogue systems, modern but incomplete digital systems and only to a degree of robust protection. Until then, the energy companies everywhere were quiet because their infrastructure did not constitute the most promising targets for hackers for financial gain. There were incidents once in a while, but not extensive. This changed, though, as state actors have entered the game that have other motives.