Provisions for the prices of corn, soy, sugar, orange juice and cotton include the third Price Bulletin for 2024, Piraeus Bank. An increased willingness to take risks prevailed in the global investment community, at monthly level, with the stock markets recording significant profits, as financial data in the US is still satisfactory, with the 3rd Agricultural Product Price Bulletin for 2024, Piraeus Bank. Instead, in the Eurozone, the stagnation picture did not seem to change significantly, despite a slight improvement in forward indicators, with inflationary pressures slowing down. The decisions of the Fed and the ECB have also contributed to the positive climate, which have kept their monetary policy unchanged, setting the starting point for interest rebates in June. The dollar retreated, strengthening values, reflected in dollar terms (goods, industrial and precious metals, as well as energy). The positive climate on the international capital markets also affected the index of agricultural products that was strengthened, while the individual yields of agricultural products were mixed. The biggest profits were noted by the prices of corn and soy, while the prices of juice, sugar, rice, wheat, and cotton were significantly lost. According to NOAA, forecasts for El-Ninio are estimated milder by April-June 2024 (83% probability), with increasing chances of developing La-Ninia in June-August 2024 (62% probability), affecting South American crops (mainly corn, soya and sugar), but not yet discounted to their prices. At individual level, the expected aid to the supply, despite the existence of duties on Russian imports of wheat, may reduce the price of wheat. For sugar, the estimated largest Indian production appears to have been discounted at the decrease in its price, a trend that can continue. Recent strong rainfall in Argentina has raised concerns about the possibility of reduced production, strengthening prices in corn. For orange juice, market concerns in terms of supply are expected to be maintained, but they are now focused on the crops in New Europe, with potential price increases. The continuation of Chinese imports of cotton as a replenishment of national stocks may have a positive effect on the price of cotton, although estimates of increased Indian production may reduce this dynamic. For soy, there is strong uncertainty as to where the level of global soy supply will be formed, with investors significantly strengthening sales positions in the Soy CPUs. The downward trend in rice prices can continue, as the forecasts for Indian rice production this year are expected to exceed the production level of 2023. At monthly level, both the index of goods (+3.5%) and the index of agricultural products (+2.16%) were moved up. As possible, excess demand in relation to supply, freight data in China and the devaluation of the dollar can be reported. At the same time, the technical picture of the indicator improved to relatively positive (from relatively negative). However, the balance of risks in global development remains downward, including maintaining the tightening of financial conditions.
Farmers: What the markets forecast for corn, soy, sugar, orange and cotton prices
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