Global demand is expected to “increase more than anticipated” in the first quarter of 2024, mainly due to the improvement of prospects in the United States and the increase in demand from ships around Africa in order to avoid the attacks of Yemen’s Huthi rebels, according to the International Energy Organisation (IEA). Oil demand is expected to reach 102.03 million barrels a day in the first three months of the year, i.e. 1.7 million more than in the first quarter of 2023 and 270,000 barrels in addition to the previous estimate, as the ILO has said in its monthly report today. According to the organisation, this is mainly explained by the American demand supported by “the increase in petrochemical activities and a relatively dynamic economy”. “In addition, disturbances in international trade routes as a result of the Red Sea riots prolong distances for shipping and cause increased speed of ships, thus increasing fuel demand,” the IOC adds. Yemeni Huthi rebels have often launched attacks on merchant and military ships passing through the Red Sea since November, in support of the Gaza Palestinians. However, for the year as a whole, “while the increase for 2024 was revised upwards by 110,000 barrels per day in relation to the previous month’s report, the expansion rate slows, from 2.3 million barrels per day in 2023 to 1.3 million barrels per day”, the IOC notes. The slowdown in growth at a rate closest to its “historic trend” after a recovery period after Covid, however, will not prevent demand from reaching a historical peak in 2024, according to the IOC.
‘Campanaki’ International Energy Agency for greater than expected oil demand
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