Weather: Warm autumn show the “models” studied by the EMI – Signs for hot winter

This extremely hot summer may officially come to an end, but the heat and high temperatures for the season will probably not leave us even while the first elements for it, show that the winter of 2021/2025 will also be warm. According to the data published by the IMI for the weather, everything shows that the warm conditions in our country will continue during autumn, since the figures estimate that the average temperatures of the quarter September – October – November may reach up to 2 degrees Celsius above normal for the season. According to the same data, there are signs of relatively warm winter, mostly in the west and south. Maps available from the C3S (Copernicus) service show data on Autumn 2024 (September – October – November) and deviations from normal values, temperature at 2m, precipitation (snow rain), geodynamic elevations at 500 hPa, as well as deviations of atmospheric pressure on the surface. Climatology, both ECMWF and all models that make up the multi-model system, refers to the period 1993-2016, i.e. the prices presented relate to deviations from the average values of this period. Both models, ECMWF and multi-model, continue for autumn the warm summer pattern, predicting positive temperature deviations generally above Europe, with the exception of the area between Iceland; Greenland, where there are possibilities for negative deviations. Positive deviations in most European regions are predicted to range from 0.5 to 1 degree Celsius, while locally in the north of Scandinavia, but also in many areas in central and south, such as Spain, Italy, the Balkans, Turkey and locally in the eastern Mediterranean, will exceed 1 point and may reach 2 degrees Celsius. In Greece Focusing on Greece, both models, ECMWF and multi-model, still give strong signal for autumn (probability > 80%), for particularly hot conditions, predicting that the average temperatures of the quarter September- October November will be above normal, even converging on the estimate that in western Greece the average temperatures of the quarter will be 1-2 degrees Celsius above normal. ECMWF estimates the same for the other regions, but the multi-model seems more restrained, appreciating positive deviations from 0.5-1 degrees. Forecast maps of ECMWF and multi-model system with rainfall deviations for autumn 2024 (3-month overage), with baselines of 01/08/2024: In terms of rainfall both models, both ECMWF and multi-model, predict increased rainfall in northern Europe and generally reduced in southern, mainly Mediterranean, regions. Especially for Greece, while multi-model estimates that autumn rains will move to normal levels, based on ECMWF, there is evidence of reduced rainfall in the east.