The S&P 500 reached a new closing high on Wednesday, July 2, 2025, following an announcement by former U.S. President Donald Trump regarding a new trade agreement between the United States and Vietnam. The benchmark index hit a fresh intraday all-time high before closing at record levels. The Nasdaq Composite rose 0.94% to close at a record 20,393.13 points, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average edged down 10.52 points (0.02%) to end the session at 44,484.42.
The rally in the S&P 500 came after Trump posted on Truth Social about the U.S.-Vietnam deal, which includes a 20% tariff on Vietnamese imports. Shares of Nike, which manufactures about half of its footwear in Vietnam and China, also rose 4% following the news.
Earlier on Wednesday, stocks faced some pressure after the latest ADP report showed the private sector lost 33,000 jobs last month—the first monthly decline in the ADP payroll report since March 2023. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had expected payrolls to rise by 100,000.
“Honestly, we’ve been seeing weakening in the labor market for months, and I always wondered if it would take a negative payroll print to get the Fed to pay a bit more attention to the labor market versus the inflation picture,” said Ross Mayfield, investment strategist at Baird, speaking to CNBC. “This is, in this front, what we hope will draw some attention.”
Certainly, the ADP report has a poor track record in predicting the official government nonfarm payrolls report, which is due out on Thursday, July 3, 2025. Economists expect an increase of 110,000 jobs in June. However, if the upcoming jobs data follow the ADP miss, a Federal Reserve rate cut could be on the table when policymakers meet later this month, according to Sam Stovall of CFRA Research.
Expectations for a Fed rate cut during the July meeting have already increased, with the CME Group’s FedWatch tool showing about a 23% probability of a cut—up from nearly 21% the previous day.