USA: Employment Remains Steady Amid Trade Policy Uncertainty

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Employment growth was strong in April, with the unemployment rate remaining stable despite significant uncertainty over President Donald Trump’s trade policies. According to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics released on Friday (May 2, 2025), non-farm payrolls increased by 177,000 last month, after revisions to the previous two months showed lower gains. The unemployment rate stayed steady at 4.2%. This report indicates that the labor market continues to cool gradually, showing resilience against uncertainties caused by tariffs and financial market volatility. Economists expect the full impact of punitive tariffs to be felt in the coming months. “This is a solid jobs report across all sectors. The word ‘R’ that the labor market shows in this report is resilience, certainly not recession,” said Olu Sonola, head of U.S. economic research at Fitch Ratings. Stock markets opened higher following the announcement, while yields on government bonds rose, though the dollar remained lower. Investors also scaled back expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in 2025. Fed officials have indicated they are in no rush to lower rates until they gain clearer insights into the policy impacts on the economy. Although independent, Trump has pressured the Fed to reduce borrowing costs, praising the robust employment numbers while reiterating his call for lower interest rates. Job growth was broad-based, driven by progress in healthcare. Employment in transportation and warehousing surged at its highest rate since December, reflecting increased import activity and demand for labor as companies rushed to beat tariffs. Manufacturing, however, saw job cuts due to the sharpest production contraction since 2020. The federal government reduced jobs for the third consecutive month – the longest streak since 2022 – reflecting efforts by the Office of Government Efficiency under Elon Musk’s leadership to trim federal workforce costs.