USA – China: Trump creates prospects for re-regulation of Washington – Beijing relations

No customs duties on the first day of his return to the White House increasing the odds of an approach as both sides want to win from each other instead of causing harm to an opponent. Speaking after his inauguration, Trump avoided referring to China, his ever rival in a previous trade war, even though he said the tariffs would make the US “devilly rich”, leaving open the door for new negotiations with the world’s second largest economy. CORVERSE Trump also delayed the ban on the Chinese TikTok application, but in an unprecedented move he suggested that the US should have half the property of TikTok’s American activities in exchange for maintaining the platform in operation, saying the company may be worth hundreds of billions of dollars. As Trump begins his second term, Beijing and Washington realize they need a new road map to promote their goals and protect their interests, analysts say, although unresolved issues such as the 2020 trade agreement can disrupt the current friendly tone in their relations. During his first term, Trump quickly built his relationship with Chinese President Shi Jinping. The two men hosted each other in Florida and Beijing. This did not prevent the deterioration of relations at the level of the trade war, which led to the imposition of tariffs on either side and caused turmoil in global supply chains. CORVERSE Neither side, however, seems to be interested in continuing from the point where they were left, while there is evidence showing instead the negotiating table. “Trump wants a deal. Otherwise, it would have hit China, the first day,” said Alicia Garcia Erero, chief economist for the Asia-Pacific region in Natixis. “He made a campaign that was very aggressive towards China, and after the first day he retreated from it”. “China wins because their duties will be limited. Because they’re going to offer Trump whatever it takes to make a deal. Financial services? Renminby? You want more powerful renbinby? Of course, perhaps on a temporary basis,” she added. Another trade war would find China in a much more vulnerable position than when Trump first increased tariffs in 2018, as it faces among others a deep crisis in the real estate sector, weak domestic demand and 16% unemployment among young people. Chinese shares were recording fluctuations today as investors struggle to understand Trump’s plans for China. Last week, Shi and Trump agreed to telephone communication to create a strategic communication channel on “significant issues”. The 47th president of the US also said he can travel to China perhaps this year. Obstacles can arise elsewhere, such as Trump’s narrow circle. Marco Rubio’s appointment, considered a “old man” in terms of China, in the position of Foreign Minister was ratified shortly after the president’s inauguration for a second term in the White House. However, other Trump government members may have different views about China. Elon Musk, appointed by Trump as head of an advisory body aiming to create a more effective American government, has extensive business interests in China and has spent years cultivating relations with Chinese leadership as CEO of Tesla and may want to have a say in terms of China policy. Analysts say Trump will see himself as America’s high-level diplomat and will not seek to rely on Rubio, who continues to be under the sanctions imposed by China in 2020, or his options for the Trade Minister or trade representative. “The concentration of power by Trump is unprecedented in modern American history. He may be the only one China can talk to from a practical point of view,” said Bo Jengyuan, a partner in the Plenum advisory firm. “But it depends on how much Trump can move within the American system, because the prevailing view has already been created that China is the US’s “number 1 opponent”. If realism is maintained, there is a possibility that China will persuade Trump to relax the export controls imposed by the Biden government to limit China’s potential for key technologies such as semiconductors, analysts say. “Trump is deep-seated businessman, his thoughts are more realistic. He is not interested in ideology,” said Wang Dong, professor of international relations at the University of Beijing. “Other problems, such as geopolitical issues, the Taiwan issue, are all secondary to Trump,” he added, noting that the self-governing democracy, which Beijing considers to be its own territory, was not mentioned in his inauguration speech. ‘We will see whether the US will return to a more realistic and rational attitude, so that both sides can further strengthen China’s relations; US and return to the course of a healthy, stable and sustainable development,” Wang said, adding: “If this can be done, we will be able to compare even the ‘Nixon 2.0′′”. Former US President Richard Nixon visited Beijing in February 1972 at the height of the Cold War, paving the way for the establishment of official diplomatic relations and China’s return to the international arena. Source: RES-AE