US Tariffs Pose a ‘Bomb’ Threat to Greece’s Economy – Risk Scenarios for 40% of Service Revenues

While direct trade relations between Greece and the US may be limited, a wave emanating from Washington toward the European Union (EU) brings indirect risks to the Greek economy. The Bank of Greece highlights its concern over the country’s most valuable export sector: shipping. In its Monetary Policy Report 2025, the central bank estimates that shipping contributes 40% of Greece’s total service revenues, making this industry critical for the country’s external balance. With such dependency, any global trade disruption—such as the tariff war initiated by Donald Trump—could translate into massive revenue losses, even without direct Greek involvement in these measures. The Bank warns that the slowdown in global trade, driven by rising geopolitical tensions and US tariffs, could severely impact maritime transport in terms of volume and revenue. The situation becomes more complex when considering new American policies affecting international shipping, including additional fees and inspections on Chinese-built vessels approaching US ports or geopolitical unrest in areas like the Red Sea and Strait of Hormuz. These movements, if generalized, could disrupt routes, increase operational costs, and reduce competitiveness for shipowners operating globally. The Bank’s analysis outlines three scenarios regarding the trade war. In the worst-case scenario, the Greek economy might see GDP drop by 0.5 percentage points, investments decline by 4.5 units, and employment fall by 0.4 units. Conversely, the mild scenario predicts slightly positive effects through strengthened net exports. However, the Bank emphasizes that it is not just the tariffs themselves but the uncertainty they create that is concerning: investors freezing plans, trade flows redistributing, and shipping strategies adjusting within an uncertain environment. As Greek shipping serves as a pillar for external orientation and the current account balance, the Bank reminds us that Greece is not immune to disruptions in the international system. Although direct impacts of US tariffs on EU are limited for Greek foreign trade, indirect effects could prove far more severe. About 42% of Greek goods exports and 34% of service exports are directed to Eurozone countries, meaning any recession there would immediately affect Greek exports. Reduced external demand in the EU, especially for intermediate products and tourism, is expected to burden Greece’s GDP. Ultimately, Greece remains exposed to secondary consequences of global protectionism, particularly via shipping and tourism, which constitute over 40% of the country’s total service exports.