Ukraine’s agricultural exports have plunged dramatically in August, with grain shipments to Europe falling to a record low since the full-scale invasion began. The sharp decline is driven primarily by a collapse in maritime transport capacity, severely constraining the country’s ability to export key agricultural commodities.
Steepest Monthly Drop Since War Began
In the first half of August, Ukraine exported just 641,900 tonnes of agricultural products across all transport modes — a stark contrast to 2.889 million tonnes in July. Based on this trend, analysts from the Ukrainian agribusiness publication USM project total August exports will reach only around 1.33 million tonnes — a 54% drop compared to July. If confirmed, this would mark the worst August performance for Ukrainian agricultural exports since February 2022.
This figure would also be 68% lower than the average August export volume between 2022 and 2025 (4.19 million tonnes) and 64% below the previous August low recorded in 2025, when exports stood at 3.71 million tonnes.
Maritime Transport Collapse
The most severe blow has been to sea freight. In July, maritime shipments accounted for 86.5% of Ukraine’s total agricultural exports. By the first 15 days of August, that share had plummeted to just 51.4%. This sharp contraction has pushed rail transport’s share up — from 11.2% in July to 38.5% in early August — but the increase in percentage does not reflect higher absolute volumes.
According to Ukrzaliznytsia, Ukraine’s state railway operator, grain exports by rail fell 68% month-on-month and 77% year-on-year during this period. Between 1 and 15 August, only 53,200 tonnes were transported toward the Black Sea ports near Odesa — a staggering 94.5% drop compared to the same period in July.
In contrast, rail exports via western border crossings rose significantly: 250,000 tonnes were moved overland to EU countries — up 126% from July’s first half. Still, international agri-trading firm Spike Brokers estimates these land-based alternatives compensated for just 15% of the lost maritime capacity. Even including increased flows through the port of Izmail, the total offset remains under 19%.
Limited Role of Road Transport
Road freight has also failed to meaningfully fill the gap. While data on trucking volumes is incomplete in the available report, analysts note that road transport contributes only marginally to overall export volumes — constrained by infrastructure bottlenecks, driver shortages, and high operational costs.