Ukraine: Russian military advance slowed in September – Donetsk front heats up

The war in Ukraine is nearing its fourth year since the full-scale invasion began, and the current frontline positions reflect the progress made by Russian forces. Analysts from the American think tanks Institute for the Study of War and Critical Threats Project told AFP that Russia’s advance slowed in September 2025, particularly in the Donetsk region of eastern Ukraine. During the month, Russian forces captured 447 square kilometers of Ukrainian territory—a slowdown compared to August 2025, when they seized 594 square kilometers, following a peak in July with 634 square kilometers taken. By September, Moscow exerted full or partial control over 19% of Ukrainian territory. Around 7%, including Crimea and parts of Donbas, were already under Russian control before the February 2022 invasion. The July advance was the strongest since November 2024 (725 sq km), excluding the early months of the war in spring 2022. From October 2024 to September 2025, Russian forces captured at least 6,000 square kilometers—nearly triple the area seized in the previous 12 months (about 2,300 sq km). Initially in September, Russia advanced rapidly, seizing 416 sq km between September 1–19, but momentum dropped sharply, with only 30 sq km gained from September 20–30. The slowdown was most notable in Donetsk, the main battleground for the past two years. There, Russia captured 181 sq km in September—one of its weakest monthly performances in a year. Around 80% of the Donetsk region is now under Russian control, up from 64% a year ago, and frontline movements have nearly frozen since mid-September. Ukrainian Armed Forces Commander Oleksandr Syrskyi acknowledged on September 26, 2025, that the situation remains “difficult” and that Russian forces continue advancing near key areas like Pokrovsk and Dobropillia. Meanwhile, Russian troops advanced in the Kharkiv region, capturing 100 sq km in the northeast, and continued pushing into Dnipropetrovsk, seizing 80 sq km—an area still largely under Kyiv’s control. Russian forces first entered Dnipropetrovsk on June 8, 2025, according to ISW, and Ukraine confirmed the presence of Russian troops there for the first time in late August 2025. Notably, Dnipropetrovsk is not among the five Ukrainian regions Moscow has claimed to annex.