Ukrainian intelligence reports indicate a significant escalation in North Korean military involvement in the ongoing conflict. According to sources cited by CNN, Pyongyang is expected to dispatch an additional 25,000 to 30,000 troops to support Moscow’s war efforts in Ukraine. These forces are likely to arrive in Russia over the coming months and will join the approximately 11,000 soldiers already deployed since November — many of whom played a role in repelling Ukraine’s incursion into Kursk.
North Korean officials claim troop deployments could begin as early as July or August. Western officials estimate that around 4,000 of these troops have already been killed or wounded during previous operations, which were carried out under strict secrecy. Russian President Vladimir Putin confirmed the deployment at the end of April.
Ukraine believes the Russian Ministry of Defense is capable of providing these soldiers with the necessary equipment, weapons, and ammunition to integrate them into Russian combat units. Recovered documents from deceased and captured North Korean soldiers assisting Russian forces in Kursk revealed that they had been issued fake Russian identity papers to conceal their participation in the war.
Analysts suggest there is a high probability that North Korean forces will engage in combat operations in areas of Ukraine currently occupied by Russia, aiming to reinforce Russian military formations, including large-scale offensive actions.
Satellite imagery reviewed by Ukrainian intelligence and obtained by CNN suggests that Russian military aircraft are being retrofitted for troop transport, indicating a massive operation to move tens of thousands of foreign troops across Siberia near the North Korean border.
Joe Byrne, a senior analyst at the Open Source Center, noted that satellite images show a Russian personnel transporter arriving in Dunai in May, along with activity at Sunan Airport in May and June, further supporting the likelihood of troop mobilization.
While Ukraine estimates that up to 30,000 troops may be sent, Jenny Town, a senior researcher at the Stimson Center, considers this number high and more realistically expects between 10,000 and 20,000 troops. She also mentioned rumors that Russian generals are already in North Korea training the recruits.
Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov stated Thursday that Kyiv suspects North Korea may send even more troops, though Kim Jong-un risks endangering his own regime by exposing elite soldiers to the high casualty rates on the front lines.
Russian Defense Council member Sergei Shoigu recently visited Pyongyang upon Putin’s orders, announcing plans to deploy 1,000 North Korean pyrotechnicians and 5,000 military workers to Russia to clear mines and rebuild infrastructure damaged in Kursk.
Meanwhile, South Korea’s National Intelligence Service (NIS) informed lawmakers in Seoul that North Korea has begun selecting personnel for overseas deployment, possibly as soon as July or August. Russian media reports also point to deepening cooperation between the two nations.
Kim Jong-un recently honored fallen North Korean soldiers who died fighting alongside Russian forces, marking the first official acknowledgment of their involvement in the war.
In 2024, Pyongyang and Moscow signed a mutual defense agreement obligating both countries to provide immediate military assistance if either is attacked and to jointly resist Western sanctions. Beyond manpower, North Korea has supplied Moscow with missiles, armored vehicles, and other military equipment.