UBS: Sees up to 56% rise in Greek banks

High rising margins, from 38% to 56%, sees or in their shares, speaking of possible distributions of funds that could overcome the conservative plans of the administrations. Considering that Greek banks offer a report on the history of the Greek recovery, UBS talks about a positive risk/reward relationship and recommends all four shares. As the house notes, banks are well placed to benefit from the investment cycle that the Recovery Fund will bring and the strong recovery of the Greek economy. The investment bank provides for a strong credit cycle in the business sector, with the increase in the loans served expected to be 8.7% annually for the period 2023 – 2026. Although net interest margins peak, hedging movements offer some protection to banks, as does the good increase in loans. In the medium term, the prospects for a strong increase in supplies are also characterised. As regards red loans, UBS notes that these have been normalised and provides that the credit risk will remain favourable and will be positively surprised. In this context, UBS gives a target price of EUR 11,20 for the National Bank (rise margin of 56%), which stands out as a top pick, for the quality of its exposure to recovery story, high profitability, strong capital position, good credit quality and the possibility of capital distribution beyond the relevant plans. For Piraeus Bank , the house gives a target price at 5.70 euros (50% growth margins) and characterizes it as a top pick for its re-rating capabilities, its remarkable recovery story and good profitability, but noting that its capital position is weaker. For Eurobank , the target price is set at 2.74 euros (a 38% growth margin), with analysts pointing to the positive acquisition of Greek, geographical diversification in Cyprus and Bulgaria, high profitability and flexibility in capital. The negatives indicate the highest cost of funding. For Alpha Bank , the target is set at 2.32 euros (a growth margin of 45%), with UBS pointing out that the bank is a leader in the lending of companies, with its funds being strengthened by the deal with UniCredit in Romania, but has lower profitability, with a lower net interest margin and high capital distribution prospects than its capitalisation.