The United Arab Emirates increased its oil production by 80% in June — the month following its formal exit from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) — according to data submitted to the cartel. Freed from production quotas, Abu Dhabi ramped up output significantly, reporting a daily crude oil production rate of 3.8 million barrels for the month, as revealed in a monthly OPEC report obtained by Bloomberg on Monday, July 13, 2026.
A Record-Breaking Month
This represents a jump of 1.71 million barrels per day compared to May. The International Energy Agency (IEA), based in Paris, estimated a slightly lower but still substantial increase — 900,000 barrels per day — bringing UAE output to a record high of 4.1 million barrels daily in June.
Strategic Shifts and Regional Impact
The surge reflects both Abu Dhabi’s decision to leave OPEC in early May and its success in maintaining oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz despite ongoing regional tensions. Increased exports contributed to a supply surplus in Asia, prompting Saudi Arabia — OPEC’s leading member — to offer rare price discounts on its crude oil shipments.
Data Discrepancies and Broader Context
OPEC publishes two sets of production figures: one self-reported by member countries and another derived from secondary sources — including external consultants and media reports. Prior to the recent escalation in U.S.-Iran hostilities, OPEC’s secondary sources had estimated UAE output at 3.39 million barrels per day, while the IEA placed it at 3.64 million. Secondary sources later aligned closely with the UAE’s official figure for June, estimating output at 3.8 million barrels per day — a 76% increase over May.
Global Demand Outlook Revised Downward
In its latest forecast, OPEC lowered its 2026 global oil demand growth estimate to 800,000 barrels per day — a 0.7% rise from 2025 levels. Though modestly revised, this outlook remains markedly more optimistic than others, such as the IEA’s, which projects a 1-million-barrel-per-day decline in global consumption this year due to the war’s economic fallout.
Saudi Output Also Rises — But More Modestly
Saudi Arabia, OPEC’s de facto leader, also raised its production in June — though not at the same scale as its neighbor. According to the same OPEC report, its output rose by 561,000 barrels per day to reach 7.122 million barrels daily.