U.S. Election 2024 – BBC Analysis: How will the world be the next day with Trump or Harris?

With no breath the world community expects to see what voters will choose on the president’s 5 November. Donald Trump or ; Questions about the next day of the U.S. election are many, either with Kamala Harris, or with Trump. On the one hand, the internal issues of the United States, on the other hand, the massive developments in the wars in Europe and the Middle East. Will Kamala Harris continue, if a new president of the United States is elected, in Joe Biden’s footsteps with her conviction that “in these troubled times, is it clear that America cannot retreat?” Or will they choose him in the hope that “Americanism, not globalisation” will show the way? But the main question on everyone’s lips is what the outcome of the American election for the planet will mean in a number of “hot issues” such as the Middle East, Ukraine and many more. We live in a world where the value of U.S. global influence is being questioned, writes in an analysis of it. Regional forces follow their own path, authoritarian regimes conclude their own alliances and the devastating wars in Gaza, Ukraine and elsewhere raise awkward questions about the value of Washington’s role. But America is important because of its economic and military power and its important role in many alliances. BBC analysis shows what the global consequences of these long-awaited elections will be. The US military force “I can’t beauty these warnings,” says Rose Gottemoeller, former NATO deputy secretary general. “Donald Trump is Europe’s nightmare, with the wake of his threat of leaving NATO in everyone’s ears”. Washington’s defence spending amounts to two-thirds of the military budgets of 31 other NATO members. Beyond NATO, the US spends more on their army than the next 10 countries in the world together, including China and Russia. Trump prides himself on playing a tough game to force other NATO countries to meet their spending targets, which is 2% of their GDP – only 23 of the Member States have achieved this goal in 2024. But his erratic statements continue to cause anxiety. If Harris wins, Mrs Gottemoeller believes that “NATO will undoubtedly be in good hands in Washington”. But there’s an issue: “She will be ready to continue working with NATO and the European Union to achieve victory in Ukraine, but will not back down the pressure [of spending] on Europe.” But Harris’s team in the White House should rule with the Senate or House of Representatives, but both bodies could soon be found in the hands of the Republicans and will be less willing to support external wars than their Democratic counterparts. There is a growing sense that no matter who becomes president, the pressure will rise in Kiev to find ways out of this war, as U.S. legislators become increasingly reluctant to pass huge relief packages. Whatever happens, Mrs. Gottemoeller says: “I do not believe NATO should be dissolved. Europe should step forward to lead.” Middle East and Ukraine The next president of the US should work in a world facing the greatest risk of confrontation of great powers since the Cold War. “The US remains the most important international actor in peace and security issues,” says Comfort Ero, president and CEO of the International Crisis Group. However it holds a reservation, “but their power to contribute to conflict resolution has diminished.” Wars are getting harder and harder to end. Wars such as war in Ukraine attract multiple forces, and conflicts as in Sudan confront regional players with competitive interests, and some invest more in war than in peace. America loses moral advantage, says Mrs Ero. “World factors observe that it applies one norm to Russia’s actions in Ukraine and another to Israel’s actions in Gaza. The war in Sudan is filled with terrible atrocities, but is treated as a second-class issue.” A Harris victory, he says, “represents the continuity of today’s government.” If Trump wins, “he can give Israel even more free hands in Gaza and elsewhere. He has also hinted that he could try to close a deal for Ukraine with Moscow, overcoming Kiev.” As far as the Middle East is concerned, the Democratic candidate has repeatedly repeated Biden’s firm support of “Israel’s right to defend itself”. But he has also taken care to stress that “the murders of innocent Palestinians must stop.” Trump has also stated that it is time “to return to peace and stop killing people”. But he allegedly told Israeli leader Benjamin Netanyahu to “do what he must do.” The Republican candidate prides himself on being a peacemaker. “I will have peace in the Middle East, and soon,” he promised in an interview with Al Arabiya television in Saudi Arabia on Sunday night. He has promised to extend Abraham’s “Agreements in 2020” (p. Israel’s agreements with the UAE and Bahrain). These bilateral agreements smoothed relations between Israel and some Arab states, but was widely considered to have sidelined the Palestinians and eventually contributed to the current unprecedented crisis. As far as Ukraine is concerned, Trump never hides his admiration for powerful men such as Russian Vladimir Putin. He has made it clear that he wants to end the war in Ukraine and along with him and the strong military and economic support of the US in Ukraine. “I’m going out. We need to get out,” he insisted on a recent gathering. Instead, Harris stated: “I was proud to stand by Ukraine. I will continue to stand by Ukraine. And I will work to ensure that Ukraine prevails in this war.” But Mrs. Ero is concerned that, no matter who gets elected, things in the world could get worse. Business with Beijing “The biggest shock in the global economy for decades”. This is the view of China’s leading scholar, Rana Mitter, on Trump’s proposed 60% tariffs on all imported Chinese products. The imposition of heavy costs on China, and many other trading partners, was one of Trump’s most persistent threats as part of his approach “first America”. But Trump also highlights what he views as his own strong personal relationship with President Shi Jinping. He stated to the editorial committee of the Wall Street Journal that he would not have to use military violence if Beijing went on to blockade Taiwan, because the Chinese leader “respects me and knows I’m [expletive] crazy”. But both the top Republicans and Democrats are hawks. Both consider Beijing to be determined to try to overshadow America as the most important force. But Mr Mitter, a British historian who holds the ST Lee seat in US-Asia relations at Harvard Kennedy School, sees some differences. With Harris, she says, “relationships will likely evolve linearly from where they are now.” If Trump wins, it is a more “fluid scenario”. For example, as regards Taiwan, Mr Mitter points out Trump’s ambivalence about whether he will come to defend an island away from America. China’s leaders believe both Harris and Trump will be tough. Mitter sees that “a small group of statusist types prefers Harris because he is “best the opponent you know.” An important minority sees Trump as a businessman whose unpredictable behavior can simply mean a big deal with China, however unlikely this may seem.” Climate crisis “The American elections are of huge importance not only to their citizens but to the whole world, due to the urgent need of the climate crisis and the crisis of nature,” says Mary Robinson, president of the Presbyters (a group of global leaders founded by Nelson Mandela) and former president of Ireland and former UNHCR. But as Hurricanes Milton and Helene raged, Trump mocked environmental plans and policies to address this climate emergency as “one of the greatest scams of all time”. Many expect him to withdraw from the 2015 Paris Climate Agreement, as he did kai in his first term. However, Mrs Robinson believes that Trump cannot stop the momentum she is now gathering. “It cannot stop U.S. energy transition and reverse billions of dollars in green subsidies… nor can it stop tireless, non-federal, climate movement”. Robinson also called on Harris, who has not yet specified her own attitude, to take on “a leadership role, to harness the dynamics of recent years and motivate other major pollutants to speed up the pace.” Humanitarian leadership “The result of the American elections is of enormous importance, given the incomparable influence exerted by the US, not only through their military and economic strength, but also through their ability to lead with moral authority on the world stage,” says Martin Griffiths, a veteran mediator in conflict, who, until recently, was Deputy Secretary General of the UN for Humanitarian Affairs and Coordinator for Emergency Aid. He sees greater light if Harris wins and says that “a return of Trump characterised by isolationism and one-sidedness, in the presidency, offers only deepening global instability.” However, it criticizes the Biden government- Harris, reporting its “hesitantness” about the deterioration of the situation in the Middle East. The heads of aid agencies have repeatedly condemned Hamas’ murderous attack on October 7 against Israeli civilians. But they have also repeatedly called on the US to do much more to end the deep misery of civilians in Gaza as well as Lebanon. Biden and his top officials kept asking for more help to flow into Gaza and at times made a difference. But critics tell them that help and pressure were never enough. The US is the largest donor in the UN system. In 2022, they provided the $18.1 billion record amount. But in his first term, Trump cut funding for several UN organizations and left the World Health Organization. Other donors rushed to fill the gaps – that’s exactly what Trump wanted to happen. But Griffiths still believes that America is a necessary force. “At a time of global conflict and uncertainty, the world expects the US to meet the challenge of responsible and with leadership principles… We demand more. We deserve more. And we dare to hope for more.” Information from BBC Photo source: Reuters