Two-Phase Plan to Counter Inflation from Middle East Crisis: Price Caps and Fuel Pass Considered

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With Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis returning to the Maximos Mansion from Paris, new government meetings are finalising measures to address the economic fallout of the escalating conflict in the Middle East — particularly the war involving Iran. The duration of the regional conflict will serve as the key trigger for implementing the policy toolkit under preparation.

First Phase: Price Caps on Essentials and Fuels

A first package of measures is expected to be announced by Friday. It will focus on curbing speculative pricing in basic goods — including food and fuels — amid rising global energy costs. Government sources stressed that while price increases at the pump due to higher international oil prices are understandable, adding excessive margins during a crisis crosses a line. “It’s one thing for prices to rise because of global market shifts — and another for businesses to slap on a ‘premium’ exploiting the situation. Preventing such practices is a top priority,” officials said.

Among the proposals under discussion is the reinstatement of a cap on gross profit margins for essential products, including food staples and fuels. Another proposal gaining traction is lowering the threshold for publicly naming companies found violating consumer protection and market regulation laws.

Second Phase: Contingency Measures — Fuel Pass and Beyond

If oil prices remain above $100 per barrel for at least three weeks, a second set of measures is expected by early April. This could include reviving tools previously used during the energy crisis triggered by Russia’s war in Ukraine — notably the Fuel Pass, a targeted fuel subsidy scheme based on income criteria. Such support would likely be activated only if petrol prices at the pump approach or exceed €2 per litre.

In the event of stronger inflationary pressures, other instruments under review include the Market Pass — a voucher-based support mechanism for grocery shopping — and the return of the “Household Basket” initiative in supermarkets, which offers discounted bundles of essential items.

No Immediate Concerns for Electricity or Tourism

Government sources confirmed there is currently no concern regarding electricity supply stability. On tourism, they noted that bookings for 2026 remain strong. While some analysts suggest neighbouring countries — like Egypt or Turkey — may face greater disruption, Greece and Italy could instead see relative benefits, either through reduced competition or increased demand from travellers seeking safer destinations. Still, officials cautioned that such assessments remain premature.

Core Government Priorities

Amid regional instability, the Maximos Mansion underscored two immediate priorities: ensuring uninterrupted supply of liquid fuels and natural gas. Officials reaffirmed that current stockpiles and infrastructure are sufficient to meet domestic needs without risk of shortage.