A danger bell strikes scientists for its rise, noting that by the end of the century, deaths are expected to increase if measures are not taken. Indeed, it is one of the ten European cities at risk from climate change. This finds research published in Nature Medicine, which also predicts that climate change could lead to an increase in deaths in Europe of up to 50%. Researchers, led by the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, analysed temperature and mortality data in 854 urban areas over 50,000 inhabitants in 30 European countries. Data were studied in Greece for 14 cities: Athens, Thessaloniki, Patras, Heraklion, Larissa, Volos, Ioannina, Kavala, Kalamata, Trikala, Serres, Katerini, Xanthi and Chania. CORVERSE They subsequently estimated future deaths due to cold and heat in these areas under different climate change scenarios, demographic scenarios and population adjustment scenarios for the period 2015-2099. The investigation took into account the daily average temperature, but not weather phenomena that could alter the estimated number of deaths, such as extreme night temperatures and humidity conditions. The most vulnerable areas were found to be in the Mediterranean, but also in eastern Europe. The sixth place in the ten European cities planned to see the highest number of deaths due to climate change by the end of the century, occupies Athens, where it is estimated that the number of deaths due to increased temperature by 2099 (based on the worst case scenario) will rise to 87,523. First on the list is Barcelona (246,082) followed by Rome, Naples, Madrid and Milan. The ten after Athens are completed by Valencia, Marseille, Bucharest and Genoa. “The urban population is more burdened by the increased temperature, because there is also an urban thermal island, meaning that the way cities are structured, with little green, large dense construction, high buildings and very concrete, raises the temperature more and does not allow the temperature to drop at night. Therefore, we know that we have far greater influences in urban centres than in the wider regions,” explains the Emeritus Professor of Biostatistics and Epidemiology of the School of Medicine of the National and Kapodistrian University of Athens and Professor of Public Health at Imperial College London, Clea Katsugianni, who participated in the study along with Professor of Epidemiology and Medical Statistics at the University of Athens School of Medicine, Evi Samoli. CORVERSE The largest death rates may be predicted in the above, most populous cities in the Mediterranean, but it was found that many smaller cities are also likely to be very affected by high rates of temperature-related deaths. Overall, the southern European country which seems to be most tested is Malta and followed by Italy, Spain, Greece and Cyprus – with small differences between them. In Greece, in the worst case scenario of climate change, it is estimated that over the five years 2050-2054 deaths will be reduced by 30.7 people per 100,000 inhabitants per year, but instead due to heat, 64.2 people will die more per 100,000 inhabitants per year. In the five years 2095-2099 the situation is even worse with the reduction of cold deaths being 55.8, but the increase in heat deaths of 175.4. More generally in southern Europe, the worst case scenario of climate change is estimated to be a major burden by climate change, as in the five years 2050-2054 a drop in cold deaths is estimated by 36.3 and an increase in heat deaths by 82.2 and five years 2095-2099 a decrease in cold deaths by 53.8 but an increase in heat deaths by 177.8 people per 100,000 inhabitants per year. Even in the best climate change mitigation scenario researchers estimate an increase in deaths associated with increased temperature, especially in southern Europe. In all climate change scenarios studied, it was found that the increase in heat-related deaths would exceed the decrease in deaths related to the predicted less cold. Typical is the fact that in the worst case scenario, in which carbon dioxide emissions will double by 2100, the research team estimates climate changes could lead to over 2.3 million additional deaths related to temperature by 2099. Figure showing cold mortality, heat and net sum, in three different climate change mitigation scenarios. Beyond the Mediterranean region, the effects are expected to be less serious, but still important in other European cities, such as Paris. On the other hand, Britain and the Nordic countries could see a net decline in deaths, as the decrease due to reduced colds may be greater than the rise due to heat. For example, London can see a decrease of about 27,500 deaths. However, this lower number of deaths is largely offset by the increases in the rest of Europe, with the overall increase in deaths due to climate change (calculating the reduction in cold deaths) over the five years 2050-2054 being estimated at 11.7 people per 100,000 inhabitants per year, while over the five years 2095-2099 to 45.4 persons. The authors of the study specify that these predictions may have a high level of uncertainty, especially for projections made over time. However, as Mrs Katsuyannis points out in the RES-ERP, “when the results are statistically significant and we are sure that there will be a burden, we have the certainty that we find acceptable to be alarmed and this is the case with the burden on the Mediterranean countries if the appropriate measures are not taken.” Katsuyannis characterizes this study as “avant-garde”, as researchers took into account scenarios for changing demographic and socio-economic factors, such as population ageing and GDP change, and not only greenhouse gas emissions. Another pioneering element in this research is that the potential adaptation of the population to climate change was included. Even in this case there is a burden on the number of deaths , “just the best scenario we will have intervened to mitigate climate change and there will be an adjustment of the population, this effect can be addressed,” she adds. The concept of adaptation to studies is considered to be at the level of behaviour of the population in ways to prevent it from changing temperature. However, Mrs Katsuyannis believes that “there is also an adaptation of the human organism to it, but it has not been extensively studied to date in what extent of time is happening.” In research only deaths from changes in temperature were studied, however the impact of climate change on the health of populations is not only that. “The increase in mortality is terrible at high temperatures. So it seems that the number of people who die of heat shock is greatly affected, but we do not have enough evidence to study how other aspects of health are affected. For example, we know that labour accidents are increasing, but this link to climate change has not been sufficiently studied because there is no data in a broad population field in Europe,” observes Mrs Katsugianni. Having devoted her research to the effects of air pollution on health, she emphasises that “the greatest environmental risk to health worldwide is exposure to air pollution in outdoors, but in certain areas of the world and indoors. This is linked to climate change, while when there is synergy of various environmental factors, such as high air pollution, e.g. from a forest fire and a heat wave, then the effects are multiplier. Climate change is therefore a multidimensional health problem and the scientific community recognises that the effects of climate change on human health have not taken the necessary attention.” Researchers estimated that up to 70% of deaths could be avoided if immediate measures were taken.
The rise in temperature will increase deaths in Europe by 50% – Athens in the 10 cities at risk
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in Greece