The ‘Hot’ and ‘Cold’ Consequences of the Israel-Iran Conflict for Athens

Warnings from both Israel and Tehran regarding the ongoing conflict that erupted on Friday, June 13, 2025, indicate no immediate end to hostilities. The initial claims about Iran’s nuclear ambitions have quickly shifted to an open goal of regime change in Tehran by Tel Aviv. Despite U.S. intelligence reports confirming Iran halted its nuclear bomb development years ago, the conflict persists with unpredictable consequences. This instability exacerbates global tensions, particularly affecting energy markets and geopolitical dynamics in the Middle East, home to the world’s largest fossil fuel reserves. For Greece, these developments could lead to both ‘cold’ economic impacts—such as rising costs due to oil price fluctuations—and ‘hot’ socio-political disruptions akin to those witnessed during the 1970s oil crisis. These included regional conflicts like Cyprus, domestic unrest such as the Polytechnic uprising, and significant political shifts. As international powers struggle to mediate, Greece must navigate carefully through potential tourism declines, increased defense spending pressures, and possible social upheaval if the situation escalates further.