Whatever bad was to happen has now happened about the Russian in, about three years after the start of the energy crisis. The last ‘babula’ was to stop the quantities of gas through Ukraine and now the market in Europe can have fewer flows than before, but it also has the relative certainty that there are no new negative surprises hereafter. CORVERSE Ukraine operated throughout 2024 as Damocleian swords over the market according to journalists and as an excuse for frenzy speculation according to site experts. The speculators will find it difficult to find corresponding fears to incite, while time works against them as we move closer to the launch of massive LNG production projects internationally. These stations will significantly enhance the availability of the LNG by pushing downward prices, at least according to the dominant narrative. Until now we were in an environment where most possible developments were negative for the consumer. But now we are in a landscape where several of the developments can be positive, such as a peace agreement in Ukraine that Donald Trump will seek. Also, the time horizon is now growing offering a little more comfort. The Commission has announced that it intends to end all Russian gas by 2027. This includes flows through Turk Stream in SE Europe, as well as the Russian LNG through the sea. It is, however, a decision that should not be taken and will depend on political decisions on both sides of the Atlantic. Finally, the picture in Europe’s gas depots is not as negative this winter as it often sounds. The pumps peaked at 0.50 – 0.72% daily at the beginning of December, but then stabilized to 0.23 – 0.46% in the second half of the month resulting in 73% at the end of the year. If these rhythms continue, the warehouses will close this winter at a lower level than previous ones, but certainly satisfactory given the circumstances.
The end of Russian gas through Ukraine also marks the end of fear in the market
—