With analysts warning it’s only a matter of time before crude oil surpasses $100 per barrel—potentially as early as Monday—the focus of governments across Europe has shifted sharply toward measures to cushion consumers from soaring fuel prices. In Greece, emergency actions—including a revived version of the ‘fuel pass’ introduced earlier—are already part of a pre-prepared policy package. That package also includes intensified inspections at gas stations and an extraordinary tax on refineries.
A Tested Approach, Not Tax Cuts
Rather than pursuing fuel tax reductions—as Italy is currently considering—the Greek government is expected to rely on proven, targeted interventions. A key advantage lies in the flexibility of domestic refineries: as Environment and Energy Minister Stavros Papastaurou confirmed yesterday, Greek refineries can redirect a significant share of their exports to the domestic market, thanks to contractual leeway with international customers.
No Official Trigger Price—Yet
To date, neither the relevant ministries nor the Prime Minister’s Office has publicly set a specific gasoline price threshold that would automatically activate emergency measures. Just days ago, officials expressed confidence that initial pump-price increases had been relatively modest. But since then, Brent crude has surged—and as gasoline approaches the symbolic €2-per-litre mark, pressure is mounting for concrete relief.
In Athens, gasoline now ranges between €1.80 and €1.90 per litre, up from around €1.67 in February. Diesel prices have risen even more sharply, narrowing much of the traditional gap with gasoline.
€2 = The Red Line
Minister Papastaurou made the link explicit: if crude oil hits $100 per barrel, “we must act.” That price point translates directly to approximately €2 per litre for gasoline at the pump—a figure widely seen as the government’s de facto red line.
Escalating Regional Tensions
Meanwhile, developments in the Middle East continue to deteriorate. Over the weekend, refineries, oil storage facilities, and oil fields were targeted in Iran, Israel, and Saudi Arabia. These attacks raise serious concerns about potential long-term damage to production capacity and export infrastructure—effects that would extend far beyond the current cycle of escalation.
A new and worrying dimension emerged with strikes against desalination plants in Iran and Bahrain—an indication of broader targeting beyond energy infrastructure alone.
With U.S. media reporting that the American president is weighing even the deployment of troops to Iran, there is little sign of imminent de-escalation—unless Iran chooses to negotiate. As a result, the Greek government and the Ministry of Environment and Energy face mounting urgency to announce its fuel policy decisions, likely within this week.