A new wave of energy price hikes — hitting fuel stations, businesses, and households across Greece — looms large following former U.S. President Donald Trump’s announcement that he plans to reinstate a naval blockade on Iran and impose a 20% tariff on all cargo transiting the Strait of Hormuz.
A Distant Strait, Immediate Economic Risk
Geographically remote, the Strait of Hormuz poses a direct economic threat to Greece. Any added cost, fee, or restriction on maritime traffic through this narrow waterway inevitably reverberates in global oil and natural gas prices — regardless of whether those shipments are ultimately bound for Greek or European markets.
Trump declared that the U.S. would assume the role of ‘guardian’ of the strait, demanding a 20% tariff on all vessels passing through. However, no details have yet emerged on how the fee would be calculated, which cargoes it would apply to, what exemptions might exist, or how it would be collected. That uncertainty alone is enough to unsettle markets: shipowners, oil companies, and insurers are already factoring in heightened risks — including military escalation, delays, or attacks on commercial vessels — into their pricing.
Fuel Prices and Electricity Bills at Stake
In the first half of 2025, roughly 20.9 million barrels of crude oil and petroleum products passed daily through the Strait of Hormuz — accounting for about 20% of global consumption and one-quarter of all seaborne oil trade.
Even a partial disruption here could trigger sharp increases in global crude prices. Those gains would ripple through refining margins and eventually reach consumers in the form of higher gasoline, diesel, and heating oil prices.
For Greece, the stakes are especially high. A fresh surge in crude prices could erode or fully offset the recently announced fuel tax cuts — 10 cents per litre on gasoline and 5 cents on diesel — scheduled to remain in effect until the end of August. That, in turn, could force the government to allocate additional funds for social support measures.
Moreover, nearly one-fifth of global liquefied natural gas (LNG) trade passes through the strait — mostly from Qatar and the United Arab Emirates — with few viable alternative shipping routes. Any supply disruption could push up European natural gas prices, raising electricity generation costs in Greece. Gas-fired power plants still set wholesale electricity prices for significant portions of the day, meaning higher gas prices could translate directly into steeper household electricity bills — or require expanded state intervention.
New Inflationary Pressure
This renewed geopolitical tension arrives at a delicate moment — as inflation remains a key concern for policymakers across Europe and Greece continues its fiscal consolidation path.