A new ALCO poll for FLASH shows New Democracy (ND) maintaining its lead with 24% support—marginally up from its previous reading—but facing a tightening race as the newly formed leftist coalition ELAS (Hellenic Left Alliance), led by Alexis Tsipras, gains ground at 14.7%, up nearly two percentage points in a month. PASOK follows in third place with 10.4%, while Maria Karystianou’s ‘Elpida’ (Hope) slips to 7.8% from 9.5%.
Undecided Voters Are the Decisive Factor
The poll underscores the pivotal role of undecided voters—15.7% of respondents remain uncommitted—a figure that keeps the electoral equation wide open. For the governing ND, the central challenge isn’t just vote erosion, but where the 24% of its 2023 voters who now say they’re undecided will ultimately land.
Only 58% of ND’s 2023 electorate currently expresses firm loyalty to the party. That means more than one in five former ND voters are still weighing their options—making them a critical target for ND’s pre-election strategy. The poll suggests these voters haven’t permanently abandoned the party, but haven’t yet returned either. In short, ND’s path to a parliamentary majority runs directly through this group.
Coalition Preferences and Political Fluidity
If ND falls short of a majority, 21% of respondents believe it should form a coalition with PASOK. This preference is stronger among ND supporters than among PASOK voters themselves. Yet uncertainty remains high: 55% decline to express any view on potential coalition partners, highlighting the fluidity of the current political landscape.
Samaras Factor Adds Pressure
An additional complication for ND is the possibility of a new party led by former Prime Minister Antonis Samaras. Eleven percent of respondents say it’s ‘very’ or ‘fairly’ likely they’d vote for such a formation. While modest in absolute terms, this figure carries weight because Samaras appears to draw support not only from Karystianou’s base but also from voters of Kyriakos Velopoulos’ Greek Solution—suggesting he could siphon votes from both ends of the centre-right spectrum.
Meanwhile, SYRIZA and Niki—both polling below the 3% threshold needed for parliamentary representation at 1.3% and 1.4% respectively—appear increasingly marginalised, squeezed by the emergence of ELAS and Elpida.