Politico: Why There Will Never Be a Ceasefire in Ukraine – The Example of the Great Northern War That Lasted 21 Years

As U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio estimates that the truce will be closed within days, Politico publishes an article titled ‘There Will Never Be a Ceasefire in Ukraine.’ The author observes that Russian President Vladimir Putin has ‘read’ former U.S. President Donald Trump, understanding his motivation for making grand statements but losing interest when discussions drag on. ‘Why should Putin bother to negotiate seriously when all he has to fear is the U.S. abandoning Ukraine if no peace agreement is reached?’ Politico concludes. According to the article, which references statements by the head of the Russian delegation at recent talks in Istanbul, ‘Russia is ready to fight an eternal war.’ Vladimir Medinsky, who served as Minister of Culture from 2012 to 2020 and oversaw the reshaping of Russia’s distorted history curriculum, was also the head of Moscow’s delegation last week. Medinsky cited the Great Northern War of 1700-21 as a warning that Russia is prepared to fight Ukraine for as long as it takes to win or force Kyiv to surrender. The conflict between Tsarist Russia and Sweden aimed for Baltic dominance and ended with Sweden’s defeat. Putin envisions himself as a modern version of Peter the Great, even having a bronze statue of the 18th-century tsar in his office. A change in Trump’s stance emerged following recent posts after a two-day phone conversation with Putin. Instead of getting angry with the uncompromising Putin, Trump seems ready to abandon his persistent claims that he could end the war. While Trump accepted Putin’s decision not to appear in Turkey and admitted the war won’t end until both leaders meet personally, he suggested that only Russia and Ukraine can negotiate peace due to their detailed knowledge of negotiations. The Kremlin understands Trump’s tendency to make loud statements but lose interest over time, similar to his first term with North Korea’s leader Kim Jong-un. The Kremlin delays negotiations, a tactic used repeatedly when they have no interest in concluding unless on their terms. Moscow’s demands include guarantees that Kyiv will never join NATO, remain geopolitically neutral, and face severe restrictions on its future decisions and armament. Until then, Russia plans to continue fighting, aided by a Trump administration unwilling to pressure Putin and unlikely to continue supporting Ukraine militarily. Both Trump and Pence argue it’s a European chaos the U.S. should never have been involved in. ‘Why should Putin bother to negotiate seriously when all he has to fear is the U.S. abandoning Ukraine if no peace agreement is reached?’ Politico concludes.