Politico: Because some in Brussels want Donald Trump as president of the US

He seems to be homesick by some officials in , who consider his re-election to the White House to be a “bitter drug”, which could nevertheless push changes to the European bloc and especially the issue of defence. A second term of Trump could develop into “necessary shock” or “bitter medicine” for the EU, they support – under the anonymity regime – six European officials. Europe may openly not be positive in a second term Trump in the White House, however behind the scenes is moving that his victory could be exactly the “shock” that the European Union needs to strengthen its defence, the tightening of its attitude towards China, its transition towards a policy of self-determination, he says in today’s report. “Trump’s return would be a beneficial shock that would allow the EU to move forward, on issues such as the pandemic or the energy crisis after the war in Ukraine,” said a senior EU diplomat, who spoke on the condition of anonymity. According to the report, this view, shared confidentially by several EU diplomats and officials, does not result from love for the Republican candidate or his political proposals but a second term Trump would sponsor the “bitter drug” needed by the divided EU to overcome its divisions and move on as a block. Their argument is based on the office that, despite the “harrowing memories of the first Trump term in which he praised European leaders, he called Brussels a “college” and launched a trade war on the bloc,” the second term is expected to be so hostile to Europe that the “27” will have no choice but to invest in their defence spending, strengthen the technology sector and clear up China policy. Officially, EU officials and leaders usually do not formally comment on foreign elections and when they do, they are limited to saying that Europe must be prepared for either a Trump victory or a Kamala Harris victory. However, they personally analyse how a change in the pattern in Washington could push changes in Europe’s policy. Ukraine, defence, economy According to officials, a Donald Trump victory could have a strong impact on a number of issues, from Ukraine to defence and economy. These changes could be positive. The most obvious area in which a Trump presidency could push for changes in Europe is defence and war in Ukraine. The former president does not hesitate to accuse Europe of enjoying US military protection free through NATO and has allegedly threatened to get Washington out of the alliance altogether. As regards Russia’s war in Ukraine, Trump has said he will end the conflict the day after his re-election, apparently without Kiev’s consent. If he returns to the White House, a Trump government could increase pressure on Europe on the “distribution of weights” beyond anything he has seen since the establishment of the alliance in 1949. “Trump contributes to awareness about defence funding, but we need a real shock to change this debate,” said an EU official. “A deal on a peace plan for Ukraine will shake it completely”. One of the EU diplomats added: “In this atmosphere, where sometimes it seems we are on the verge of World War III, Trump seems to be more averting wars.” The financing of weapons for Ukraine is an example. A group of EU countries currently want to borrow jointly, by issuing Eurobonds, to increase the total funds available in Kiev. But this movement is reacting, among other things, to the ‘smoky’ countries, such as Germany and the Netherlands. Those who are pushing for the issue of Eurobonds for defence, hope that a second term of Donald Trump could mobilize these countries, as the pandemic did, to accept the joint loan. Instead, a Harris victory “would give further ammunition to those who oppose the idea of saying that the joint loan is dead,” said an EU diplomat. There is similar logic for Europe’s economy, which has been making dead ends efforts for years to harmonise its single market. In a landmark report published last month, former head of the European Central Bank Mario Dragi warned that Europe was in danger of a final economic decline. Dragi argued that the EU should unify its markets and invest massively in industrial capacity. However, reforms to harmonise the EU market, in particular its financial sector, have never progressed much, despite a decade’s consultation. Officials consider that another Donald Trump term could become a catalyst, which would force reluctant countries to finally accept joint supervision of their banks and stock exchanges, these officials argue. In trade, the Trump return could also prove to be a lever of change, shifting the block towards a protectionist approach – which the French have supported. Brussels pledged to postpone the repayable duties until March 2025, just two months after the inauguration of the next US president. The EU wants to avoid a total trade war with the US, but is better prepared this time to fight back in Washington if necessary. During his term of office, several European countries have been under pressure and have finally abandoned contracts with the Chinese telecommunications giant Huawei amid cybersecurity concerns that were highlighted by the US. And while Biden governance has a conciliatory approach to the issue of EU relations with China, in a Trump governance, the reconciliation approach could change. Ursula von der Leien “clearly wants a tougher approach to China, but faces resistance from hesitant Member States, mainly Germany,” said a senior EU official. “A small push from another Trump government would help her rather than harm her”. As the November 5 election approaches, European officials are not expected to express these views publicly as Trump is deeply unpopular in most of Europe, he comments on Politico. However, Brussels is better prepared this time, a number of EU officials sign. But officials have said that perhaps it is time to embrace autonomy, suggesting that Europe should prepare for a major change in EU relations – U.S., no matter who gets elected. Or, as French Minister for Europe, Benjamin Hadad, put it last week, “Europeans must take their fate into their hands, regardless of who will be elected president of the US.”