Most of Greece’s largest debtors—those owing more than €150,000 to the state—remain outside formal debt settlement schemes. This significantly limits the government’s ability to recover overdue tax and social security arrears. Although the publication of the ‘major debtor list’ has been postponed to February 2027, the situation remains largely unchanged: around 30,000 high-value debtors continue to operate outside existing restructuring mechanisms.
Who’s Actually Enrolling in Settlement Plans?
Data from the Independent Authority for Public Revenue (IAPR) shows that participation in debt settlement programs is dominated by individuals and small-to-medium enterprises with relatively manageable liabilities. The majority of enrolled debtors owe between €500 and €10,000—with 15.52% of all regulated debts falling in this range. Participation peaks in the €2,000–€3,000 bracket, where 18.16% of debts have been successfully restructured—underscoring that smaller, more digestible obligations are far more likely to be resolved.
Among individuals specifically, 15.34% of those enrolled owe between €500 and €10,000, rising to 18.40% in the €2,000–€3,000 segment. For businesses, the pattern differs: the highest participation rate—21.66%—is observed among those owing €10,000 to €100,000, climbing to nearly 25% for the €10,000–€20,000 group. This reflects the operational necessity for companies to maintain tax compliance as a prerequisite for continuity.
The Scale of the Challenge
Total overdue public sector debts stand at approximately €114.5 billion. However, €35.25 billion of this has already been classified as irrecoverable—leaving a net overdue balance of €79.25 billion. Even that figure overstates realistic recovery potential. According to the Hellenic Parliament’s Budget Office, only about €27 billion is considered realistically recoverable. The remainder consists largely of very old debts, accrued penalties, and fines—many of which are legally or practically unenforceable.
The Ministry of National Economy estimates that up to 1.3 million individuals and 284,000 businesses—holding combined debts nearing €95 billion—could potentially join the new 72-month installment plan. Yet, experience suggests uptake will remain concentrated among those with smaller debts, raising questions about whether the scheme will meaningfully address the core challenge posed by Greece’s largest, most entrenched debtors.