Oil Prices Rise Amid Tensions Between the US and Iran

Oil prices are rising gradually today following the strikes conducted by the US against Iran over the weekend (June 21-22, 2025). Specifically, oil prices have increased by nearly 2%, reaching $75.27 per barrel (compared to $75 on the previous Friday, June 20, 2025). The relatively mild increase in oil prices is attributed to traders expecting a response from Iran, which has not yet occurred. Meanwhile, the dollar is also showing upward trends. A Bloomberg dollar index rose by 0.2%. Contracts for the S&P 500 fell about 0.3%, and an Asian stock index dropped to its lowest level since early June. Yields on government bonds have risen. Oil remains at the center of attention, as any disruption in traffic through the Strait of Hormuz—a key artery for global crude and natural gas—raises concerns about energy price hikes. While Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi stated that his country retains all options to respond, there have been no indications of actual disruptions in physical oil flows so far. Market analyst Josh Gilbert from eToro in Sydney noted that such uncertainty quickly becomes the new normal for markets, leading to a sense of calm unless tensions continue to escalate. Even without direct impacts, the mix of oil instability and renewed uncertainty could keep risk appetite subdued. The market’s reaction remained generally subdued after the initial Israeli attack this month. Despite the declines over the past two weeks, the S&P 500 is only about 3% below its February high. The dollar has risen slightly above 1% since hitting a three-year low earlier this month. Future developments will largely depend on Iran’s next move, according to some market observers. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. predicts that if oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz were halved for a month and remained 10% lower for another 11 months, Brent crude could spike temporarily to $110 per barrel.