Oil Price Rises by 1% Amid US Strikes on Iran – Could Hit $110 If Hormuz Straits Close

The oil price is moving upwards today, albeit at a moderate pace, following the strikes carried out by the US against Iran over the weekend (June 21-22, 2025). Specifically, the oil price has increased by nearly 1%, reaching $74.5 per barrel (compared to $75 last Friday, June 20, 2025). The relatively mild increase in oil prices is due to traders expecting retaliation from Iran, which has not yet occurred. Meanwhile, the dollar is also showing upward trends, with a Bloomberg index for the dollar rising by 0.2%. Contracts for the S&P 500 fell approximately 0.3%, and an Asian stock index dropped to its lowest level since early June. Yields on government bonds have risen. Oil remains central to market attention, as any disruption in traffic through the Hormuz Strait—a critical artery for global oil and gas—raises concerns about energy price increases. While Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi stated that his country retains all options for response, there are no signs yet of actual disruption in oil flows. Analysts suggest that unless tensions escalate further, markets may stabilize. However, uncertainty could keep risk appetite subdued. Goldman Sachs Group predicts Brent crude could spike to $110 per barrel if oil flows through the Hormuz Strait were halved for a month and remained 10% lower for another 11 months. Iran has vowed to impose ‘eternal consequences’ for the bombing. Israel continues its attacks, targeting military installations in Tehran and western Iran. Increased US fiscal spending might lead to higher bond yields and stock prices if conflict escalates further.