Oil Price Rises by 1% After US Strikes on Iran – Could Hit $110 If Hormuz Is Blocked

Oil prices are rising moderately today, following the strikes conducted by the US against Iran over the weekend (June 21-22, 2025). Specifically, oil prices have increased by nearly 1%, reaching $74.5 per barrel (compared to $75 last Friday, June 20, 2025). The relatively mild increase in oil prices is due to traders expecting a response from Iran, which has not yet occurred. Simultaneously, the dollar is experiencing upward trends. A Bloomberg dollar index rose by 0.2%. Contracts for the S&P 500 dropped approximately 0.3%, and an Asian stock index fell to its lowest level since early June. Yields on government bonds have risen. Oil remains at the center of attention, as any disruption in traffic through the Strait of Hormuz—a key artery for global crude and natural gas—raises concerns about energy price increases. While Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi stated that his country retains all options to respond, there are no signs yet of actual disruptions in physical oil flows. Analysts suggest that unless tensions escalate further, markets might remain calm. However, uncertainty could still keep risk sentiment subdued. Goldman Sachs Group predicts Brent crude could spike temporarily to $110 per barrel if oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz were halved for a month and remained 10% lower for another 11 months. Iran has vowed to impose ‘eternal consequences’ for the bombing. Meanwhile, Israel continues its attacks, targeting military installations in Tehran and western Iran. Increased fiscal spending by the US amid ongoing conflicts could lead to higher yields on government bonds and stock prices. Despite potential market declines, some investors are preparing for conflict escalation, limiting significant sell-offs.