It has been heading towards the largest weekly rise since early October 2024, due to the escalation of hostilities between it and Ukraine. Brent oil negotiated over $74 a barrel, rising nearly 5% throughout the last week, while the crude oil (West Texas Intermediate) was close to $70, according to Bloomberg. The war has intensified rapidly after months of bloody deterioration, with Russia launching a ballistic missile after the extensive use of long-range weapons provided by the West to Ukrainian forces. Since mid-October oil has been moving between weekly profits and losses. On the other hand, this is because of the increase in the dollar rate and the increase in supply. The Kremlin also renewed its nuclear doctrine this week, although Russia’s foreign minister tried to appease concerns about a nuclear escalation. “There is an element of uncertainty as to how far each place could reach its attacks, which introduces some concern in the oil market,” said Vandana Hari, founder of Vanda Insights in Singapore. The impact exacerbation has added a risk premium of $3 to $4 a barrel, he added. The US, meanwhile, imposed sanctions on Russian Gazprombank, closing a “window” that Washington had opened during the war, because the lender has an important role for energy markets. Sanctions increase the risk of interrupting some of the remaining flows of Russian gas towards a small number of central European states. However, the oil market faces a significant surplus of supply in 2025, with investors monitoring OPEC+’s decision on plans to revitalise inactivated production. This will likely coincide with the continued weak demand from China, as the Asian nation struggles to get its economy out of a constant recession.
Oil is heading for the biggest weekly rise in the last two months
—