In a highly ceremonial setting, Donald Trump signed—on camera—a peace agreement with Iran aimed at ending the war that began alongside Israel. At the same time, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian signed the same accord in Tehran. Both sides declared victory in the devastating conflict. Yet Trump—who had insisted just weeks earlier on ‘unconditional surrender’ from Iran—was left facing an unexpected outcome.
Less than 15 weeks ago, Trump stated unequivocally: ‘There will be no deal with Iran except unconditional surrender.’ But when the text of the agreement formally ending hostilities was released on Wednesday, it bore little resemblance to capitulation.
According to a New York Times report, Iran appears to emerge from the war not merely as a victor—but as a power having secured substantial economic and strategic concessions. The agreement restores Tehran’s ability to earn billions of dollars from oil exports, delivering critical financial relief to a regime under severe economic strain.
At the same time, both sides are preparing for a new, even more consequential round of negotiations over Iran’s nuclear program—reportedly to be suspended for 15 to 20 years, according to Trump himself. For a president historically defined by his emphasis on pressure and negotiating leverage, this development raises serious questions.
The Strait of Hormuz
The agreement leaves open the possibility of Iran negotiating a permanent dominant role in the Strait of Hormuz—a move seemingly at odds with recent statements by U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who had declared any change to the current framework of freedom of navigation in the region ‘unacceptable.’
The deal, signed Wednesday by Trump and Pezeshkian, also paves the way for the unfreezing of vast Iranian financial assets held abroad for years. While Trump insists those funds will only be released upon ‘good behavior’ from Tehran, the arrangement closely mirrors the 2015 nuclear deal brokered by Barack Obama—a pact Trump repeatedly denounced during his previous term.
Trump’s original objectives had been far more ambitious: the complete dismantling of Iran’s nuclear and missile programs, the collapse of the regime, and—by implication—even U.S. oversight of Iran’s oil industry. None of these goals appear to have been achieved.