NYT Analysis: Trump Promised Wealth but Now Faces Economic Uncertainty

The ambitious promises made by U.S. President Donald Trump are colliding with the harsh realities of governance, according to an analysis by The New York Times. As a candidate, he pledged unprecedented economic prosperity. However, eight weeks into his presidency, he has avoided ruling out the possibility of a recession—a notable shift in tone and message, especially for someone who vowed to ‘Make America Great Again.’ According to recent statements, this comes during a period of market volatility, with the S&P 500 index dropping 2.7% on Monday (10.03.2025), following a 3.1% decrease the previous week. Business leaders are increasingly concerned about the uncertainty caused by his tariffs. Even some Republicans, despite fears of backlash if they oppose Trump, are beginning to express concerns about his policies. This moment reflects a fundamental challenge for Trump, a showman whose grandiose promises inevitably clash with the realities of governing. The economy he inherited was considered stable by many indicators—low unemployment, moderate growth, and inflation that, while higher than the Federal Reserve’s target, had shown significant decline. However, the uncertainty generated by his policies contrasts sharply with the optimistic image he painted during his campaign. During a rally in October, Trump promised, ‘We will start a new era of high incomes,’ adding, ‘Prosperity that is soaring. Millions and millions of new jobs and a booming middle class. We will have a boom like we’ve never seen before.’ This pledge for economic prosperity now conflicts, at least temporarily, with one of the president’s favorite tools: tariffs. Promised during his campaign, these tariffs have been warned by economists as the primary factor in dimming economic prospects. Forecasts from JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs indicate that a recession next year has become more likely due to Trump’s tariffs. So far, the president seems to be trying to manage expectations. In a Sunday interview on Fox News, Trump retreated when asked if he expects a recession this year. ‘I hate to predict such things,’ he said. ‘There is a transition period because what we’re doing is huge. We’re bringing wealth back to America. It’s a big deal. And there are always periods that take a little time. It takes a little time, but I think it will be great for us.’ In last week’s speech to a joint session of Congress, Trump acknowledged that tariffs would cause ‘a small disruption.’ But he added, ‘We’re okay with that. It won’t be something very big.’ Despite market turmoil, global leader reactions, and business concerns, Trump has made clear he does not intend to change his tariff strategy. Last week, he committed to further measures next month. However, given his tendency to change positions unexpectedly, he has already rescinded some tariffs—and may do so again. Trump closely monitors the stock market, frequently pointing to its success during his first term as proof of his achievements. Many businessmen rallied behind Trump’s campaign believing he would prioritize their economic interests, but now some executives and small business owners complain about the economic pain his tariffs will cause. Recently, top Trump advisors attempted to calm markets and businesses. Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross stated on Sunday that there is ‘no chance’ of a recession. Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin was less confident, saying Friday that there will be a ‘natural adjustment’ as the economy goes through a ‘detox period’ based on federal spending. ‘The full pressure from the president and his supporters this weekend signals they are under immense pressure from people listening—the stock market, Republican lawmakers, and businesses,’ said Kate Kalutkewitz, senior advisor at McLarty Associates, a consulting firm. The question looming in Washington is how long Trump can endure continued stock market declines—and the negative publicity that accompanies it. ‘I don’t know,’ said Steven Moore, an economist at the Heritage Foundation and former economic advisor to Trump. ‘It’s a good question. I’m sure the president is worried about the losses in the stock market over the last 10 days. We’re all worried.’