New Price Hike Coming for Beef

We may need to get used to permanently high — if not even higher — prices for beef. This is due to forecasts of further shrinking supply, while demand remains strong. Although international beef prices have slightly decreased (-5.45%) in the last quarter, they have risen by 28.8% over the past three years. According to Piraeus Bank’s agricultural products investment strategy report, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) maintains limited cattle numbers for both 2025 (-3.0% year-on-year) and 2026 (-2% year-on-year), due to lower slaughter rates, lighter carcass weights, and restricted availability of breeding animals. Trade projections for 2025 and 2026 beef imports remain unchanged, while exports are expected to decline through year-end. Analysts suggest these factors will support short-term price increases. Meanwhile, rising holiday-season demand could keep retail and wholesale prices high, potentially limiting upward pressure. Additionally, recent tariff suspensions under former President Trump, aimed at lowering costs, along with position liquidations, have driven down live cattle futures to around $2.14 per pound, down from $2.41 in August. The significant increase in short positions by fund managers reflects these market conditions, concludes Piraeus Bank.