Since the beginning of the year no longer flows Russian through Ukraine, but has already found alternative ways. No doubt Russia has been losing some of its revenue since the beginning of the year due to the interruption of the gas transfer through Ukraine. However, the country has already found alternatives to prevent serious economic damage. To this end, it wants to expand the exports of liquefied natural gas and at the same time supply gas through pipelines to other customers, such as China. Ukraine had refused to allow further transit deliveries, as these contributed to the financing of the Moscow war machine. CORVERSE “We will continue to expand our share of the global markets for liquefied natural gas (LNG),” Putin said at the annual press conference on 19 December. He also expressed confidence that the Russian gas giant Gazprom PJSC would survive the end of transport through pipelines from Ukraine. Despite calls to ban supplies, Europe continues to buy LNG from Russia, mainly from the Yamal liquefied natural gas plant managed by Novatek PJSC. The total volume exceeds even that previously sold through Ukraine. Russia’s LNG exports reached record last year, according to ship tracking data. Before the invasion, Russia sold about 155 billion cubic meters of gas from pipelines in Europe every year. In 2024, the country exported about 30 billion cubic metres of natural gas to the region, of which more than half went through Ukraine. CORVERSE Since the majority of Russian gas no longer flows to Europe, the cancellation of the Ukrainian pipeline will have no significant impact on the economy, Tatiana Orlova, an Oxford Economics economist, said. “Europe will continue to need natural gas, as all its efforts to move away from Russian gas were not successful,” Orlova said. “It will likely end up buying more Russian LNG to compensate for the decrease in gas imports from Russia,” he said. According to estimates by the Bloomberg news agency, Gazprom sold natural gas worth about EUR 5.8 billion through Ukraine in 2024. Economists expect little impact on the Russian economy However, most economists and researchers assume that the loss of these sales through Ukraine will only have a minor impact on the economy. According to estimates from various analysts, Russia will lose the equivalent of about 0.2% to 0.3% of its gross domestic product. “The numbers are too small to make a dent in Putin’s war machine,” explained David Oxley, an economist of Capital Economics, in a note last week. By comparison, Ukraine will lose around 0.5% of its gross domestic product because it will no longer receive fees for transit of natural gas. Slovakia, which depends largely on Russian gas and also earns money from transit charges, will lose, according to its estimates, about 0.5% of its GDP. Gas continues to flow from pipelines to China and Turkey In addition to the sales of liquefied natural gas, Russia can also export gas through pipelines that do not pass through Ukraine. Traditions to China, which has surpassed Europe as the largest Russian pipeline gas market, are expected to reach the 31 billion cubic metres record in 2024. In 2025, this figure could reach 38 billion cubic meters. According to estimates by Sergei Vakulenko (Sergey Vakulenko), a researcher at Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, this will offset half of the quantities lost due to the end of transit through Ukraine. Gazprom could also export more via TurkStream, the direct gas pipeline between Russia and Turkey, which also contributes to the supply of certain European customers. In 2025, Gazprom could sell 25 billion cubic metres to Turkey and 15 billion cubic metres to Europe through this route, Vaculenko estimates. Russia also wants to divert part of the fuel to Central Asian countries.
Natural Gas: How Russia Will Cover Revenue Losses From Flow Break Through Ukraine · Global Voices
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