Five NATO member countries—including Greece—are projected to meet the Alliance’s new defense spending target of 3.5% of GDP as early as 2026, according to updated NATO data released ahead of the Ankara Summit.
Lithuania Leads, Greece Ranks Fifth
Lithuania tops the list with an estimated defense expenditure of 5.33% of its GDP—followed by Estonia (5.1%), Latvia (4.92%), Poland (4.68%), and Greece at 3.65%. All five exceed the newly agreed benchmark.
A New Benchmark for Collective Defense
The 3.5% target was endorsed by NATO leaders at the 2025 Hague Summit. It calls on members to allocate that share of GDP toward core military capabilities, defense equipment, and critical infrastructure by 2035. In addition, allies pledged an extra 1.5% of GDP for defense-related domains—including cybersecurity and supporting infrastructure.
This replaces the previous benchmark of 2% of GDP, first introduced in 2014 as part of the Wales Pledge.
Trump’s Influence and Persistent Gaps
The push for higher defense spending reflects longstanding pressure from former U.S. President Donald Trump, who urged NATO allies to increase their financial contributions to collective security.
Yet many members remain near the old 2% floor. Belgium is expected to spend exactly 2%, while Italy and Portugal are forecast to invest 2.1% each. The United States is projected to spend 3.17% of its GDP on defense in 2026; Germany 2.69%; the United Kingdom 2.56%; and France 2.22%.
Progress and Shortfalls
Last year, Albania (1.48%), Slovenia (1.57%), and the Czech Republic (1.86%) fell short of the 2% goal. This year, however, Albania and the Czech Republic are expected to surpass it—while Slovenia’s new government has committed to raising defense spending above the threshold.
Overall, European NATO members and Canada are projected to spend an average of 2.53% of their combined GDP on defense in 2026—continuing a steady upward trend over recent years.