NATO allies are expected to commit to new multi-billion-dollar arms contracts and ramp up defense production during the Alliance’s upcoming summit in Ankara next month, according to five NATO diplomats who spoke to Politico. Though former U.S. President Donald Trump has repeatedly criticized NATO since his re-election last year, member states are also expected to reaffirm their commitment to Article 5—the mutual defense clause—at the summit and jointly declare Russia a long-term threat, as reported by Politico.
Ankara Summit Amid Transatlantic Tensions
Leaders from all 32 NATO member states—including Trump—are set to gather in Turkey’s capital on July 7–8. The meeting comes amid growing U.S. criticism that European allies have not done enough to support Washington in confronting Iran—a point of friction that adds complexity to the agenda.
As in previous years, the final joint declaration is expected to be brief, diplomats told Politico. They described the draft statement in detail but requested anonymity to speak freely on the sensitive negotiations. NATO ambassadors are currently finalizing the text, which remains subject to last-minute changes before heads of state and government sign off in Ankara.
Focusing on Industrial Capacity—and Unity
While the exact dollar value of the new arms deals has not yet been finalized, some procurement agreements may already have been negotiated in advance and will be formally announced during the summit. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte aims to center the summit on strengthening the Alliance’s defense industrial base—a priority partly driven by his effort to bridge internal divisions within NATO.
This emphasis reflects a broader strategic shift: moving European industry away from high-cost, low-volume weapons systems toward faster, large-scale production. At the same time, pledging new defense contracts that benefit U.S. manufacturers could help Rutte make an economic case for NATO that resonates with Trump.
Last week, Rutte noted that European allies and Canada collectively spent $139 billion more on defense in 2024 than in 2023—following a commitment made earlier this year to reach 3.5% of GDP on defense spending by 2035.
Ukraine Support Remains Central—and Contentious
The draft declaration includes a pledge to provide Ukraine with €70 billion in military aid this year—and to match or exceed that amount next year, diplomats said. Politico was the first to report this financial target, which does not include contributions from the United States.
One diplomat described Ukraine support as likely the most contentious issue in the negotiations—highlighting both its urgency and the political sensitivities involved. Still, overall discussions reflect a shared determination to sustain pressure on Russia while reinforcing transatlantic cohesion.