Lower Growth Forecast for Greece in 2025 by KEPE: 2.2% vs Commission’s 2.3%

The Centre for Planning and Economic Research (KEPE) forecasts lower growth for Greece in 2025 compared to the European Commission. KEPE predicts a GDP growth rate of 2.2%, slightly below the Commission’s projection of 2.3%. This forecast is based on data available up to Q1 of 2025, reflecting economic dynamics prior to the recent escalation of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, whose evolution and impacts remain unpredictable. The external environment is expected to remain unstable and volatile in the short term, posing downside risks to Greece’s economic projections. Domestic demand will be crucial in supporting GDP growth amidst sluggish European growth rates, deteriorating global trade prospects, and geopolitical instability. Private and public consumption are currently positively influenced by income trends and less restrictive fiscal policies. However, energy costs and their inflationary effects remain uncertain factors. Investment in fixed capital could see a boost from Recovery Fund disbursements and enhanced Public Investment Program funding, with regulatory hurdles for construction activity needing resolution to further stimulate investment spending.