Low Expectations for US-China Trade Talks in Switzerland

Analysts are skeptical about the prospects of reaching a trade agreement between the US and China during their upcoming talks in Switzerland, as reported by Politico. Despite this, there is no indication that the two countries are close to an agreement. While President Trump’s willingness to reduce tariffs from at least 145% to 80% might seem significant, it is unlikely to quickly revive trade between the two nations, as imports of Chinese goods into US ports continue to decline steadily. Observers note that China’s Vice Premier He Lifeng, leading the discussions in Switzerland, is unlikely to make immediate concessions. Furthermore, China is not expected to rush into any agreement, as they assess what the Trump administration truly wants and how best to protect their interests. According to Christopher Adams, a former senior coordinator for China affairs at the Treasury Department, He Lifeng may primarily be listening and will relay findings to President Xi. Even if some progress is made this weekend, business owners, lawmakers, and economists warn it won’t be fast enough to avoid significant economic pain. The ongoing trade tensions have already impacted businesses, with small enterprises at risk of closure and large retailers warning consumers could see fewer products by summer’s end. Experts anticipate high prices through June or early July as pre-tariff stockpiles dwindle. This weekend’s talks are seen as just the opening salvo in negotiations expected to last months, if not years. Both sides remain convinced of their leverage over the other, complicating swift resolution. Meanwhile, China remains steadfast, believing it can endure tariff-induced economic downturns better than the US, where consumers are already frustrated by post-pandemic inflation and declining consumer sentiment.