Iraq has unveiled an ambitious plan to significantly increase its oil production, targeting 8 to 10 million barrels per day (bpd) within the next six years—nearly double its pre-Iran-Iraq War output of roughly 4 million bpd. The initiative comes as Baghdad seeks greater flexibility in scaling up output amid evolving global energy dynamics and regional geopolitical pressures.
Diplomatic Outreach to OPEC+
On Friday, August 21, 2026, Iraq dispatched a high-level delegation to Saudi Arabia, led by its Ministers of Oil and Finance. The mission’s primary objective is to request an upward revision of Iraq’s production quota within the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). As the de facto leader of OPEC+, Saudi Arabia holds decisive influence over collective production decisions.
This move coincides with a broader OPEC+ review of member countries’ production capacities. The alliance has commissioned the U.S.-based consulting firm DeGolyer and MacNaughton—headquartered in Texas—to conduct an independent assessment of the maximum sustainable production capacity of most OPEC+ members, including Iraq. The firm is expected to submit its findings to the OPEC Secretariat by late September 2026. Following that, negotiations will begin on establishing new production ‘baseline’ levels—technical benchmarks that will determine each country’s official output ceiling starting in 2027.
The Stakes of Baseline Negotiations
Baseline discussions are historically contentious: a higher baseline directly translates into a larger permitted production volume for each member. As a result, OPEC+ countries—including Iraq—have strong incentives to advocate for elevated capacity estimates, even as technical assessments aim to ensure long-term sustainability and market stability.
Diversifying Export Routes Beyond the Strait of Hormuz
Parallel to expanding output, Iraq is pursuing strategic diversification of its export infrastructure to reduce reliance on Gulf terminals—and especially the volatile Strait of Hormuz. Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi confirmed ongoing efforts to strengthen oil exports via Turkey’s Ceyhan port, while also advancing plans to resume shipments through Syria’s Baniyas port and Jordan’s Aqaba terminal.
Particular emphasis is placed on constructing a new pipeline to Baniyas—a project Reuters reports could take approximately four years and cost at least $15 billion. If realized, the pipeline would provide Iraq with a critical alternative route, mitigating risks linked to potential disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz.
Currently, the sole operational export pipeline—the Iraq-Turkey pipeline ending in Ceyhan—carries only about 170,000 barrels per day, highlighting the scale of infrastructure investment still needed. Meanwhile, maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains markedly subdued compared to pre-war levels—even after two U.S.-Iran ceasefire agreements signed in April and June—while commercial vessels continue to face security threats.