Senior Israeli officials have expressed skepticism about whether the ongoing war against Iran will lead to the swift collapse of the country’s theocratic regime, according to a Reuters report citing a top Israeli official. Two other Israeli officials, speaking in private briefings, added that despite U.S. President Donald Trump’s recent comments suggesting the conflict could end “soon,” Israel assesses that Washington is not close to deciding on an immediate cessation of hostilities in Iran.
Uncertainty Over Regime Change
The senior Israeli official did not specify which factors led the government to conclude that the Iranian political system’s collapse is far from certain. On the day Israel launched its joint air campaign with the United States, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu declared: “Our joint action will create the conditions for the brave Iranian people to take their destiny into their own hands.” He specifically referenced Iran’s major ethnic and linguistic minorities—including Kurds, Baloch, and Arabs—fueling speculation that the U.S. or Israel might support uprisings by these groups.
Shift in Rhetoric
However, in a statement on Tuesday, March 10, 2026, Netanyahu reiterated that while Israel aims to help Iranians “throw off the yoke of tyranny,” the outcome ultimately “rests with them.” Analysts interpret this phrasing as an implicit acknowledgment that a near-term uprising appears unlikely.
No Clear Public War Aims
To date, neither Israel nor the United States has issued a joint public statement clearly defining the war’s objectives or outlining the conditions under which the military campaign might end. Earlier, in a brief phone interview with Axios, Trump said the war with Iran would conclude “soon” because “there’s practically nothing left to target.” He added: “A few things here and there… Whenever I want it to end, it will end”—during a five-minute call—and noted that operations in Iran are progressing faster than originally planned.
Diplomatic Signals
In a closed briefing for foreign diplomats, Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar declined to set a timeline for the military operation—a move sources say aligns with Israel’s assessment that the U.S. is not nearing a decision to end the conflict. Sa’ar also acknowledged the possibility that Iran’s government may survive the war, though he voiced confidence it would eventually collapse.
Military Focus Over Regime Change
Asaf Orion, former head of strategic planning for the Israel Defense Forces and a researcher at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, observed that degrading Iran’s military capabilities appears to be the most immediate and measurable goal of the campaign. “Creating conditions for regime change is an indirect objective—and therefore far more difficult to assess,” he said.