IMF for France: High uncertainty, fiscal consolidation measures are required

Its financial situation is being alarmed by the IMF. In a report by the IMF, although it predicts that France’s growth is projected to converge to its potential rate of 1.3% this year from 1.1% in 2023, it notes that prospects are still subject to high uncertainties. Political fragmentation and uncertainty at home, particularly after the outcome of the election that the New People’s Front first demonstrated and without a government formation, could delay fiscal consolidation and reform efforts, burdening trust and public finances. As regards abroad, downward risks continue, including the escalation of geopolitical tensions and a sharp global slowdown on key trading partners, which could also significantly affect prospects. On the contrary, as the IMF points out, the fastest reform dynamics in France and at EU level could mitigate these risks. It is noted that the French economy remained resistant to recent shocks and achieved a gradual recovery, however, tackling the crisis and slowing down the expected growth have burdened public finances, reducing the fiscal space in a period of increasing investment needs for green and digital transition. In this context, it is proposed to shift focus towards rebuilding budgetary stocks and achieving a sustainable modernisation of the economy, with a well-defined and reliable plan of measures to support fiscal consolidation plans. The IMF underlines the need for substantial additional efforts to reduce the deficit below 3% of GDP by 2027 and to put debt firmly on a declining path. It complements that the adaptation will contribute to enhancing France’s resilience to shocks by noting how the future development of public finances remains exposed to an increase in state spreads or a decrease in growth. The Fund therefore proposes that fiscal consolidation should focus on rationalising current expenditure while maintaining room for development-friendly investment.