How the ten-year bond removed Greek debt from the very dangerous “field” of the 2025 storm

A few 24 hours before Trump’s installation in the White House and in the midst of a, unknown when and how he will be discharged, turmoil in the bond markets, the DIDIC, decided and completed – the other day – a major bond issue with relative success. Great? Yes “very” great, considering that it covers 50% of the planned annual loan for 2025. For some, the choice to do so and for such a large amount, the ten-year version, was contested as the pressures on international bond markets are still in ‘red’. The “price” and “performances” (at 3.63%) could be said that although a little “punched” move to the expected levels given that markets wait within January for the big fish to descend to the battlefield. Like Italy and France, which in the first two months must meet enormous financial needs for their debt. And the… the bags are waiting. So why choose to enter such a time in such a dangerous field? The answer can be sought on the one hand in the result itself (a huge overcovering of the offer, relatively “reasonable” final prices and yields, good “biography” for preferred buyers). And from partnering in good preparation with the Primary Dealers to ensure the demand for the DADEX, which even though it came out for EUR 3 billion, eventually due to the response it received EUR 4 billion. That’s a 30% increase in initial targeting. But why now? Nevertheless, the answer to why the ODEX came out now and in the middle of a storm, to borrow the… half of the money of the year, probably not only has to do with what was mentioned above, but mainly with something else. 2025 is the year with the biggest uncertainties of the last decade – some argue that it is the most critical year since 2008 – for financial markets. Not only what we know is going to happen, but above all what we do not know that they can or will happen. In addition to the establishment of D. Trump in the White House with that this can bring to a level of geopolitical twists, with the already announced policies on tariffs, tax-launching and immigration and geographical expansionist intentions, the uncertainties concerning the financial markets are enormous. And they are all in relation to foreign exchange markets and basically the dollar, that is, the debt expressed in it. Some analysts do not even hesitate to make comparisons – non-proportional – with the early 60s, before the crisis with the dollar broke out in the early 70s. In this context, the most ‘close’ time for a new earthquake in the financial markets concerns Japan and the forthcoming interest rate increase. If this happens – the decision is for the end of January – and one wants to see the possible consequences as long as he returns on 5 August 2024, when the first one was made after a short period of increase in Japanese interest rates. And remember what happened. The Japanese economy should be reminded that it is one of the largest holders of American dollar debt… and a key field of internationalcarry trade for decades. But the main causes and not just grounds for the next earthquakes are how the Fed will be forced to act after the implementation of Trump policies has begun. And therefore what will be required to ‘do’ and the ECB to keep the Euro from sinking into even deeper waters than it has already been in the 2024. These changes in the “waves” that shake the waters of the exchange market and mine the monetary policy of the Central Banks, form the enormous uncertainties for the first half of 2025. One year, which the old 2024 expectations had ever loaded with anticipation for further interest cuts… After 15 January and the 4 billion euros of the last edition of the ten-year bond, the DADEX (and with him the HYNK), can retire to the corner, being quiet that they will not have to enter the big money market room, which will be “danced” by the … European public debt elephants. At least until the summer of 2025… This “circulation” exit from the dangerous room that elephants will dance in, the Greek public paid for it with yields of 3.63%. But as it all seems it was probably worth it, to move away from the point where it would be in danger of being “trapped”, as some neighbors in 2025 are in danger.