‘ Buy the rumor, send the news” is the famous investment saying on the other side of the Atlantic and is confirmed in the last days in its case in Europe. The price of the TTF contract increased to a high of 14 months – close to 51 euros/MWh – in the previous days, with the announcement of the end of Russian supplies via Ukraine after many decades. CORVERSE Many rushed to talk about a new energy crisis, but the reality is completely different: The lost quantities amount to only 5% of European needs and can be replenished through the LNG, as Europe now has a large number of terminals that welcome these cargoes by sea. At the same time, demand in the EU has declined strongly in recent years as a result of green policies and efforts to rehabilitate this fuel. It is indicative that this winter LNG imports are well below the previous two. If an alarm had been issued because of Ukraine, one would expect to see much more cargo arriving on the European coast. Furthermore, the picture in the gas depots of the Old Epirus is not currently of concern: The level was over 70% at the end of the year and daily draws are at normal seasonal level, although they increased compared to the previous two years. CORVERSE According to analyst Seb Kennedy, merchants have been drawing more quantities from the warehouses in recent months because they want to burn expensive gas to make room for cheaper gas later in 2025, when the warehouses will have to be replenished. This choice probably expresses the belief that lower prices will prevail from now on. The market is aware of all the above and perhaps that is why the price of the TTF declined immediately after the announcements for Ukraine. During the morning hours today (2.1.2025) it was found just over EUR 49/ MWh. In any case, Europe is fully equipped and there seems to be no concern about a new crisis. Only, although crucial, question is the prices consumers will be asked to pay from now on.
How the gas market reacts one day after Russian supplies via Ukraine ceased
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