How Close is Russia and China’s Involvement in the Israel – Iran Conflict?

Donald Trump’s abrupt departure from the G7 meeting in Canada, amid escalating tensions between Israel and Iran, has fueled scenarios predicting a sudden escalation of the conflict. These rumors, which stem from sources in Washington and London, are being taken very seriously by powerful international media outlets. Some interpretations of these scenarios, based on Iran’s military capabilities and potential deeper U.S. involvement supporting Tel Aviv, seem plausible, but the next 24 hours will reveal what might actually happen. However, regarding any possibility of de-escalation before irreversible mass destruction occurs in the broader region, other avenues for solutions are being explored. These expectations appear to have some basis as strategic options for certain powers in the region. According to these ‘peaceful’ expectations, the key to any realistic resolution lies in whether Iran could agree to withdraw from its nuclear program under conditions that ensure its stability against Israel’s aggressive strategies, which already possesses nuclear weapons. No international organization has ever demanded inspections or counts of Israel’s nuclear arsenal, and there is no public discussion about it in the broader region. The answer to this question seems to hinge on extending the existing strategic agreement between Iran and Russia. Simply put, if Russia officially agrees to cover Iran under its nuclear umbrella through an international treaty. Such an agreement would require approval from both Washington and China, which until the outbreak of the Israel-Iran conflict, had achieved the biggest diplomatic turnaround in the region by reopening relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia—the two largest owners and suppliers of fossil fuels on the planet who were previously adversaries. Unconfirmed reports suggest that this possibility, regarding Russia’s role in securing Iran, was discussed during a recent one-hour phone call between Putin and Trump. However, these same reports indicate that such a move faces absolute opposition from Netanyahu, who appears to be promoting a strategy of ensuring internal stability by opening new external fronts in the broader region. Clearly, Russian involvement in such a pursuit—where consensus within Tehran’s regime seems lacking—highlights even more the interconnectedness of the fronts in Ukraine and the Middle East. It makes the prospects of the next day in these conflicts interdependent with consequences for those who have sought to expand them so far. As of now, the absence of any significant role from the ‘United (?) Europe,’ which seems to consistently lag behind in understanding real-world developments, both in Europe and the Middle East, is evident. For the time being, however, it appears that the next 24 hours will bring violent escalations of ghostly conflicts in the skies and lands of the Middle East, making it the grim reality of the region.