Growth with Asterisks: The Uncertainty of Tariffs and Critical Weeks Ahead

One after another, international and domestic agencies highlight Greek growth rates with particularly positive forecasts, but no one forgets to include a significant asterisk: the outcome of the trade war threatening to upend every estimate for global economic progress. Despite markets calming compared to the April shock, nearly half of the three-month truce between the U.S. and EU has passed without substantial negotiation results, as acknowledged by the American president. If no agreement is reached by July 8, U.S. tariffs on European imports could double from 10% to 20%, with recent pressure tactics hinting at a possible increase to 50% starting June 1. Such developments are expected to significantly impact both international and Greek growth, especially indirectly, as Greek exports heavily depend on the economic health of European partners. In its spring projections, the Commission predicts Greek GDP growth of 2.3% in 2025 and 2.2% in 2026, outpacing the Eurozone average. However, risks remain due to persistent trade tensions and geopolitical uncertainties that could negatively affect Greek exports, particularly in tourism. Both the Bank of Greece and the OECD echo similar sentiments, noting limited direct exposure but significant indirect impacts through potential global trade slowdowns. Fitch Ratings also upgraded Greece’s outlook to ‘positive,’ forecasting over 2% growth for 2025-2026, emphasizing the need to monitor European economies closely.