The steady decline of Greece’s public debt is marking two pivotal milestones for the national economy—signalling a gradual departure from the levels that defined the height of the fiscal crisis. According to projections from the Ministry of National Economy and Finance, Greece is expected this year to reach a symbolic yet substantive target: public debt will fall below 140% of GDP—the first time since 2010, when the economic crisis erupted.
Returning Below Crisis-Era Levels
In 2010—when Greece entered its international bailout programmes—public debt had surged to around 146% of GDP, following a sharp rise in the preceding two years. This year’s projected dip below 140% marks a meaningful turning point, reinforcing perceptions of sustained macroeconomic improvement among international investors and credit rating agencies.
The Second Landmark: Under 120% by 2029
The downward trajectory doesn’t end in 2026. Under the Medium-Term Fiscal Strategy, public debt is projected to fall below 120% of GDP by 2029—a threshold widely viewed as a key indicator of fiscal sustainability and investor confidence.
More specifically, official estimates foresee the following path:
- 2026: 136.8% of GDP
- 2027: 131.5% of GDP
- 2028: 124.6% of GDP
- 2029: Approximately 119% of GDP
Growth and Primary Surpluses Drive the Decline
This significant improvement in the debt-to-GDP ratio stems primarily from sustained strong economic growth and continued primary budget surpluses. In its latest report, the Hellenic Fiscal Council (HFC) underscores that primary surpluses remain one of the most critical factors steadily reducing the debt ratio. Economic expansion also plays a vital role—by increasing the size of the economy, it improves relative fiscal indicators without requiring absolute cuts in debt.
Equally important is the active debt management strategy pursued by the Hellenic Republic Asset Development Fund (HRADF) and the Ministry of Finance—now coordinated under the newly restructured Hellenic Debt Management Agency (HDMA). This includes early repayments of bilateral loans, notably those under the Greek Loan Facility (GLF).
Early Repayments Lighten the Debt Burden
Following full repayment of IMF loans in 2022, Greece has accelerated repayment of GLF obligations. In December 2024, around €7.9 billion was repaid ahead of schedule. A further €5.3 billion was settled at the end of 2025. A new early repayment of approximately €7 billion has already been announced—covering instalments originally due in coming years. The current plan foresees the near-complete prepayment of all such bilateral loans by 2031.
Still, much of Greece’s remaining debt carries very long maturities—with the bulk of obligations stretching out to 2070.