Greece is preparing a new early debt repayment of approximately €2.5 billion—targeting obligations to the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF)—as part of its broader strategy to accelerate public debt reduction. The move follows the successful early repayment of €6.94 billion in bilateral loans from the first bailout package and comes amid strengthened fiscal conditions, including a recent €3 billion reissue of its 10-year government bond maturing on 16 June 2036.
A Strategic Shift in Debt Management
The Hellenic Republic Asset Development Fund (HRADF), known as ODDEX, is currently evaluating this next step, which remains under discussion and has not yet been finalized. While the €3 billion raised bolsters the state’s overall liquidity position, not all of it will be directed toward the upcoming repayment. Instead, the Ministry of National Economy and Finance treats debt issuance and repayments as strategic tools—not just fiscal instruments—to enhance Greece’s credibility and market perception.
Why Italy Matters
The core objective goes beyond accounting: Athens aims to speed up the decline of its debt-to-GDP ratio so that Greece falls below Italy on this key metric before the end of 2026. According to the European Commission’s spring 2024 forecasts, Greek public debt is projected to fall from 146.1% of GDP in 2025 to 140.7% in 2026 and 134.4% in 2027. In contrast, Italy’s debt ratio is expected to rise—from 137.1% in 2025 to 138.5% in 2026 and 139.2% in 2027.
Although the Commission’s baseline scenario places Greece ahead of Italy only in 2027, policymakers are pushing to bring that crossover forward—ideally by year-end 2026—by front-loading debt reduction efforts this year.
Balancing Market Presence and Debt Reduction
ODDEX’s 2026 strategy remains dual-track: maintaining active presence in capital markets to support yield curve development and secondary-market liquidity, while simultaneously using strong cash buffers—including primary surpluses and favorable borrowing terms—to retire older official-sector debt. The timing and scale of the next repayment decision will depend on evolving market conditions, fiscal execution, and ongoing technical assessments.